3rd Quarter 2017

Confidence Intervals for the Growth Rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)








Period GDP Confidence Intervals for the True Growth Rate of GDP
Growth 90% 95% 99%
Rate1/ Lower Limit Upper Limit Lower Limit Upper Limit Lower Limit Upper Limit
2004 Q1 6.4 6.1 7.3 5.8 6.9 5.6 7.7
  Q2 6.2 5.5 6.9 5.8 7.1 5.1 7.3
  Q3 6.3 5.7 6.6 5.9 7.2 5.4 7.4
  Q4 5.4 4.6 5.9 4.5 6.1 4.8 6.3
2005 Q1 4.6 3.7 5.0 3.6 5.1 3.4 5.4
  Q2 4.8 4.1 5.1 3.9 5.4 4.2 5.7
  Q3 4.1 3.6 4.5 3.3 4.4 3.1 4.5
  Q4 6.1 5.5 6.5 5.3 6.6 5.1 6.9
2006 Q1 5.5 5.0 6.0 4.8 5.8 4.8 5.9
  Q2 5.5 5.0 6.0 4.9 6.1 4.8 6.3
  Q3 4.8 4.3 5.4 4.3 5.1 4.1 5.2
  Q4 4.8 4.3 5.0 4.3 5.4 4.1 5.2
2007 Q1 7.0 6.7 7.2 6.4 7.7 6.3 7.9
  Q2 7.6 7.3 7.8 7.0 8.4 6.9 8.0
  Q3 6.4 6.2 7.1 6.1 7.2 5.9 7.4
  Q4 7.4 7.2 8.1 7.1 8.1 6.9 8.3
2008 Q1 5.4 5.2 6.0 5.1 6.1 4.9 6.2
  Q2 4.6 4.3 4.8 4.3 4.9 4.2 5.0
  Q3 5.0 4.6 5.5 4.6 5.5 4.4 5.7
  Q4 4.5 4.1 4.9 4.0 5.0 3.9 5.1
2009 Q1 0.6 0.3 1.0 0.2 1.1 0.0 1.2
  Q2 2.0 1.6 2.4 1.6 2.4 1.4 2.6
  Q3 0.8 0.5 1.2 0.5 1.3 0.3 1.4
  Q4 1.7 1.4 2.1 1.3 2.2 1.2 2.3
2010 Q1 7.3 7.0 7.7 6.9 7.8 6.8 7.9
  Q2 7.9 7.6 8.3 7.5 8.4 7.3 8.5
  Q3 6.5 6.1 6.8 6.0 6.8 5.9 7.0
  Q4 7.1 6.7 7.4 6.6 7.5 6.5 7.6
2011 Q1 4.6 4.2 4.9 4.1 4.9 4.0 5.1
  Q2 3.4 3.0 3.7 3.0 3.8 2.9 3.9
  Q3 3.2 2.8 3.5 2.8 3.6 2.7 3.7
  Q4 3.7 3.4 4.0 3.3 4.1 3.2 4.2
2012 Q1 6.4 6.1 6.8 6.1 6.8 5.9 6.9
  Q2 5.9 5.7 6.3 5.6 6.4 5.5 6.5
  Q3 7.1 6.9 7.5 6.8 7.6 6.7 7.7
  Q4 6.8 6.6 7.3 6.6 7.3 6.5 7.5
2013 Q1 7.8 7.6 8.3 7.6 8.3 7.5 8.4
  Q2 7.5 7.3 8.0 7.3 8.0 7.2 8.1
  Q3 7.0 6.8 7.4 6.7 7.5 6.6 7.6
  Q4 6.5 6.3 6.9 6.2 7.0 6.1 7.1
2014 Q1 5.7 5.5 6.1 5.5 6.2 5.4 6.3
  Q2 6.4 6.2 6.8 6.1 6.8 6.0 6.9
  Q3 5.3 5.1 5.7 5.0 5.7 4.9 5.8
  Q4 6.9 6.7 7.3 6.7 7.4 6.6 7.5
2015 Q1 5.2 5.0 5.5 4.9 5.6 4.8 5.7
  Q2 5.6 5.4 5.9 5.3 6.0 5.2 6.1
  Q3 6.0 5.9 6.4 5.8 6.5 5.7 6.6
  Q4 6.3 6.2 6.7 6.1 6.8 6.0 6.9
2016 Q1 6.9 6.8 7.3 6.7 7.3 6.6 7.4
  Q2 7.0 6.8 7.3 6.8 7.4 6.7 7.5
  Q3 7.1 6.9 7.4 6.9 7.5 6.8 7.6
  Q4 6.6 6.4 6.9 6.4 6.9 6.3 7.0
2017 Q1 6.4 6.2 6.7 6.2 6.8 6.1 6.8
  Q2 6.5 6.3 6.8 6.3 6.9 6.2 6.9
  Q3 6.9 6.7 7.2 6.7 7.2 6.6 7.3

1/ refers to GDP growth as initially estimated
Source of Data:  Philippine Statistics Authority

The country's GDP at constant prices grew by 6.9 percent in the third quarter of 2017. There is 90 percent confidence that the growth of GDP is between 6.7 percent and  7.2 percent.

 
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