By the year 2045, the Philippine population is projected to increase to 142 million according to the latest 2010 Census-based population projections. Around 50 million people would be added in a span of 35 years. This increase in numbers would take place even if the average annual growth rate is projected to decline significantly, from 1.73 percent during 2010-2015 to 0.65 percent during 2040-2045. The Philippine population grew by 1.9 percent annually during the decade 2000-2010.
The graying of the country's population is expected to continue over the projection period. In 2010, the population aged 60 years and over comprised 6.7 percent of the total population. This group is projected to account for about a tenth of the total population in 2025 and about one-sixth in 2045. The proportion of those aged 65 years and over, which was 4.3 percent in 2010, is estimated to increase to 6.5 percent in 2025, and to 11.4 percent in 2045.
On the other end, the proportion of children aged 0-14 years is projected to fall. In 2010, for every three persons in the population, one belonged to the age group 0-14. By 2045, the corresponding proportion would be one in five. Even the absolute number is projected to be reduced from 31.3 million in 2010 to 30.0 million by 2045.
Meanwhile, the percentage of children under 5 years of age is estimated to decrease rapidly, from 11.6 percent in 2010 to 6.7 percent in 2045, a 42 percent reduction in 35 years. The working-age population,15-64 years, accounted for more than three-fifths of the total population, (62.0%) in 2010, but would comprise more than two-thirds (67.5 %) by 2045. Women in the child-bearing ages, 15 to 49 years, who made up about a quarter of the total population (25.7 %) would account for a similar proportion (24.9%) in 2045.
This report presents the highlights of the national population projections under the medium series. The 2010 Census-based national population projections are available in three series – the High, Medium and Low Series. The projected populations are presented for males and females in five-year age groups for five-year calendar periods beginning in 2010. The single-calendar year projections of the male and female populations for the period 2010-2020 are also presented. These projections were prepared by the Philippine Statistics Authority in collaboration with the Inter-Agency Working Group on Population Projections chaired by Dr. Mercedes B. Concepcion with members representing the Commission on Population, Department of Education, Department of Health, National Economic and Development Authority, Philippine Statistical Research and Training Institute, and the University of the Philippines Population Institute.
(Sgd) LISA GRACE S. BERSALES, Ph. D.
Technical Note
The 2010 Census-based population projections utilized the Cohort-Component Method. This methodology is based on the fact that population change is a result of three demographic processes, namely: fertility, mortality and migration. Accordingly, the assumptions adopted take into account the future trends in fertility, mortality and migration. The three series of population projections, namely, the low, medium and high series, are based on the above-mentioned assumptions adopted. The low series corresponds to rapid fertility decline, assuming that a replacement-level fertility or a net reproduction rate (NRR) equal to 1.0 is achieved by year 2025; the medium series corresponds to moderate fertility decline or NRR=1 by year 2035; and the high series to slow fertility decline, or NRR=1 by year 2045. An NRR equal to 1.0 corresponds to a total fertility rate of 2.0, or about two children per woman who has completed her childbearing years.
Only one assumption on mortality was adopted. Life expectancies at birth e(0) for males and females are assumed to continue to improve in the next 35 years, that is, for males from 66.9 years in 2010 to 76.5 years by the end of the projection period, and for females, from 72.9 years to 82.5 years.
Likewise, only one assumption on international migration was adopted. It is assumed that the emigrants, or residents of the Philippines migrating to other countries, would continue to outnumber the immigrants, or residents of other countries who migrate to the Philippines. The net number of migrants (or number of immigrants minus the number of emigrants) would constantly increase from 381,000 in 2010-2015 to 810,000 in 2040-2045.
