Highlights of the 2010 Census-Based Population Projections

Reference Number: 


Release Date: 

Tuesday, August 9, 2016
By 2045, the Philippine population is projected to increase from its 2010 Census Count of 93 million to 142 million. This increase is expected even with the projected slowing down in average annual population growth rate, from 1.73 percent during 2010-2015 to 0.65 percent during 2040-2045. The CALABARZON region remains the largest in terms of population size even until 2045 (20.1 million), followed by the NCR and Central Luzon with 14.5 million each. Western Visayas and Central Visayas come next with 10.4 million each. The CAR region will continue to report the smallest population with 2.6 million by year 2045.
Cebu with the most numbers in 2045 
The   population   projections   for  the  80  provinces  and  two  special areas, Cotabato City (located in Maguindanao but is under SOCKSARGEN) and Isabela City (located in Basilan but is under Zamboanga Peninsula), indicate that by 2045, the metropolis of Cebu which includes the cities of Cebu, Lapu-Lapu and Mandaue, will have the largest number of persons with almost 6.0 million, followed by Cavite with 5.2 million, Bulacan (4.5 million), Rizal (4.4 million), Laguna and Negros Occidental (4.3 million each) and Pangasinan (4.0 million). Other provinces that are projected to contain more than two million persons by 2045 are listed in Table 1.  The base year (2010) population and the projected 2020 counts for these provinces are also shown in the Table. 
The provinces of Batanes and Camiguin with projected population of 27,600 and 128,300 by 2045, respectively, (not shown in the Table) will still have the least number of people over the projection period 2010-2045.  
Slower provincial population growth in the long term  
According to the 2010 Census-Based Population Projections, the population in all the provinces and two special areas of the country would continue to grow throughout the projection period 2010-2045. However, the projected growths would be slowing down in accordance with the assumption of a declining fertility trend.  Based on the projections, the provinces that are likely to post the highest population growth rates (PGRs) in 2010-2015 are Quezon, Basilan, Batangas, Rizal and Lanao del Sur. For 2040-2045, the following provinces are expected to have the highest PGRs: Biliran, Aurora, Siquijor, Quezon and Basilan (See Table 2).
Projected population age structure and the demographic dividend
In general, the projected population by broad age groups for the period 2010 to 2040 will rise, except for age group 0-14 years which is projected to gradually decline to 30 million by 2045 after peaking to 34 million during 2025-2030.  The working age population, 15-64 years, will likely grow from 64 million in 2010-2015 to 96 million by 2040-2045.  Those aged 65 years and older may quadruple in size from 4 million in 2010-2015 to16 million by 2040-2045. The female population aged 15 to 49 years will most likely increase steadily from 24 to 35 million throughout the projection period.
The age structure of the population of the country from 2010 through 2045 (Refer to Figure 2) presents an opportunity of economic-demographic advantage. A bulge appears in the working age population, 15-64 years old, for the entire projection period matched by a projected narrowing proportion of young dependents under age 15 years, from 34 percent to 21 percent between 2010 and 2045. A smaller number of children per household generally leads to larger investments per child, more freedom for women to enter the formal workforce and more household savings for a secure old age (UNFPA)1
The proportion of people age 65 and older, on the other hand, while projected to increase continuously, is no match for the burgeoning working age population, 15-64 years of age.  As a result of this changing age structure, the country’s overall dependency ratio is projected to decrease by 13 percentage points, from 61 percent in 2010 to 48 percent in 2045 (Refer to Figure 3). The above conditions when coupled with benefits of good health, quality education and decent employment are likely to lead to a demographic dividend (UNFPA)1.
Notes: Old-age dependency ratio = (Population aged 65 and over/Population age 15 to 64)*100
Youth dependency ratio = (Population under 15/Population age 15 to 64)*100
Total dependency  = ((Population aged 65 and over + Population under 15)/Population age 15 to 64)*100
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority, 2010 Census-based Population Projections in collaboration with the Inter-Agency Working Group on Philippine Projections
(Deputy National Statistician, SSO)