The 2020 Census-Based National Population Projections are available in three fertility scenarios. For Scenario 1, the total fertility rate (TFR) for years 2021 and 2022 is estimated to be at 1.9 children based on the results of the 2022 National Demographic and Health Survey and assumed to rebound to a TFR of 2.1 children, which is the replacement level, from 2025 until 2055. Scenario 2 assumes a slow decline from 2.1 children in 2020 to 1.9 children in 2021 and 2022 and 1.9 children from 2025 until 2055. Finally, Scenario 3 assumes a continuous decline such that by 2055, the TFR is at 1.7 children.

The Philippine population is projected to increase for the next 35 years across different TFR scenarios. By 2025, the Philippine population is projected to be about 114.12 million, 113.86 million, and 113.63 million under Scenarios 1, 2, and 3, respectively. At the end of the projection period, the Philippine population is projected to be about 145.37 million, 138.67 million, and 132.32 million under Scenarios 1, 2, and 3, respectively. (Figure 1 and Tables 1 to 3)
 

The population growth rate (PGR) from 2020 to 2021 was 0.80 percent in all three scenarios. The projected rate of population growth varies by TFR Scenario. In 2025, the PGR is projected to be 0.99 percent, 0.87 percent, and 0.75 percent under Scenarios 1, 2, and 3, respectively. At the end of the projection period, that is 2055, the PGR is expected to be 0.48 percent, 0.30 percent, and 0.11 percent under Scenarios 1, 2, and 3, respectively. (Figure 2 and Table 4)

Highlights of the 2020 Census-Based National Population Projections

The 2020 Census-based national population projections are available in three scenarios, but Scenario 2 is recommended for utilization in policy and programming purposes. Under Scenario 2, the following are the highlights.

1. The Philippine midyear population is projected to reach 138.67 million by 2055. In a span of 35 years, around 29.47 million people will be added to the projected midyear population of 109.20 million population in 2020. (Table 2)

2. The average annual growth rate is estimated to decline from 0.84 percent for the period 2020-2025 to 0.35 percent for the period 2050-2055. (Table 5)  

3. The population aged 60 years and over comprised about 8.5 percent of the midyear population in 2020. The percentage share of this age group is expected to increase to about 19.6 percent of the projected midyear population in 2055. (Table 7)

4. The percentage of children under five (5) years of age is estimated to decrease from 10.2 percent in 2020 to 6.0 percent in 2055. (Table 7)

5. Females of childbearing ages, that is 15 to 49 years old, comprised about one-fourth (25.6%) of the midyear population in 2020. The percentage of this age group is projected to slightly decrease to 23.3 percent in 2055. (Table 7)

6. The working-age population, that is 15 to 64 years old, accounted for 64.0 percent of the midyear population in 2020. This group is expected to comprise 67.0 percent of the projected midyear population by 2055. (Table 7)

The projected populations are presented for males and females in five-year age groups for five-year calendar period from year 2020 to year 2055 and single-year calendar period from year 2020 to year 2030 for each scenario. The national population projections were prepared by the Philippine Statistics Authority through the Inter-Agency Working Group on Population Projections, with technical assistance from the United Nations Population Fund Philippines.

The PSA Board approved for adoption by all concerned the methodology for the generation of the 2020 Census-Based National Population Projections through PSA Board Resolution No. 01, Series of 2024, dated 29 January 2024.

CLAIRE DENNIS S. MAPA, PhD
Undersecretary
National Statistician and Civil Registrar General