Philippine Population Would Reach Over 140 Million by the Year 2040 (Final Results from the 2000 Census-based Population Projections)

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Tuesday, April 4, 2006

The Philippine population would continue to grow, increasing from 76.5 million, as of the latest population census conducted in May 2000, to 141.7 million in 2040, according to the Medium Series of the 2000 Census-based population projections. This means that 65 million people would be added to the nation's population between 2000 and 2040, which is a span of 40 years, even if the average annual growth rate is projected to drastically decline from 2.34 percent during the 1990-2000 period to around 1.0 percent during the 2030-2040 period. The population is projected to grow by 1.95 percent in the 2005-2010 period, from 85.3 million in 2005 to 94.0 million in 2010.

The nation's population would also become older as it is projected that child-bearing rate by women in the country will continue to decline and the survival rates of all age groups will improve. In 2005, the age group 0-14 accounted for 35.0 percent of the nation's total population. By 2010, this age group would comprise 33.0 percent and by 2040, 23.1 percent. Meanwhile, 4.3 percent of the Filipinos would be 65 and over by year 2010, and by year 2040, 9.7 percent of them would be in the same age group.

Among the regions, CALABARZON is projected to have the largest population by 2010, surpassing the NCR which currently has the largest population. In 2010, CALABARZON would have 11.9 million people, while the NCR, 11.6 million. By 2040, CALABARZON would have 18.5 million, and Central Luzon, by then the second largest region, would have 15.0 million. Cordillera Administrative Region would continue to have the smallest population with 2.7 million by year 2040. Meanwhile, MIMAROPA would remain as the fastest growing region, as it is expected to have an annual growth rate of 2.6 percent in 2005-2010 and 1.6 percent in 2035-2040.

These are just few of the highlights of the 2000 Census-based population projections prepared by the National Statistics Office in collaboration with the Inter-Agency Working Group on Population Projections. The final report will include tables on projected population by sex, five-year age group and five-calendar year, projected total fertility rates, projected life expectancy at birth, and average annual growth rates, for the period 2000 to 2040 for all regions and provinces, under the Medium Series. Similar tables containing national projections under the Low and High Series will also be generated.