Month-on-Month Growth Rates

On a monthly basis, the rate of change in the seasonally adjusted CPI for all items at the national level remained stable as it posted a zero growth in February from 0.6 percent in January. It resulted from mixed movements among the commodity groups. Higher monthly rates were noted in housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels index at 0.1 percent from -0.1 percent and restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services index, 0.2 percent from 0.1 percent. On the other hand, the alcoholic beverages and tobacco index further declined by 0.8 percent from -0.7 percent. Moreover, slower growths were recorded in the indices of clothing and footwear at 0.4 percent from 0.5 percent and health, 0.3 percent from 0.4 percent. The same previous month’s rates were seen in the indices of furnishing, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house; recreation and culture; and education.

The seasonal factor of bigger production of selected goods in preparation for the graduation season pushed up the indices for all items and alcoholic beverages and tobacco relative to the expected trend. This seasonal factor however did not raise the indices of the rest of the commodity groups during the month.

In NCR, higher monthly increments were observed in alcoholic beverages and tobacco index at 0.7 percent in February from 0.4 percent in January and non-food index, 0.2 percent from -0.2 percent. However, movement in the index for furnishing, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house eased to 0.8 percent from 1.0 percent while education and transport indices retained their corresponding previous month’s rates of 0.3 percent and -0.3 percent.

Relative to the expected trend, the indices of alcoholic beverages and tobacco; non-food; furnishing, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house; and transport were pushed up by the production of some goods in preparation for the graduation season. This seasonal factor however, pushed down the education index in the area.

Compared to a month ago, movement in the seasonally adjusted CPI for alcoholic beverages and tobacco in AONCR dropped by 1.2 percent from -0.8 percent. Slower gains were likewise registered in the indices of clothing and footwear and education at 0.3 percent from 0.4 percent; furnishing, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house index, 0.2 percent from 0.3 percent; and recreation and culture index, 0.1 percent from 0.3 percent. While the growths for health and restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services were still recorded at their respective last month’s rates of 0.3 percent and 0.2 percent, that for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels index was zero.

The upward adjustment in alcoholic beverages and tobacco index was influenced by the production of selected goods in preparation for the graduation season while those for the other commodity groups were pushed down by this seasonal factor relative to the expected trend.