The Philippine population is projected to reach 142 million by 2045. This signifies about 49 million persons added to the country’s population from 2010 to 2045, equivalent to an average annual growth rate of 1.21 percent. All regions are expected to increase in population but with varying rates of growth. Ten regions are projected to grow faster than the national average with five of these regions located in Mindanao.
During the years 2010 to 2045, the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) is projected to have the highest average annual growth rate of 2.12 percent. Caraga’s population growth rate of 1.72 percent ranks second with SOCCSKSARGEN, Davao Region and Zamboanga Peninsula following. The regions in Luzon with high population growth rates are the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) (1.35 percent), CALABARZON (1.31 percent), MIMAROPA (1.58 percent), and Bicol Region (1.65 percent). Eastern Visayas is projected to grow by an annual average of 1.53 percent.
In terms of population, CALABARZON remains the largest in numbers by 2045 (20.1 million), followed by the National Capital Region and Central Luzon with 14.5 million each. Western Visayas and Central Visayas are the other regions surpassing the 10-million mark, with 10.4 million each in 2045. Cordillera Administrative Region will continue to have the smallest population with 2.6 million in year 2045.
This report presents some of the highlights of the 2010 Census-based regional population projections prepared by the Philippine Statistics Authority in collaboration with the Inter-Agency Working Group on Population Projections chaired by Dr. Mercedes B. Concepcion with members representing the Commission on Population, Department of Education, Department of Health, National Economic and Development Authority, Philippine Statistical Research and Training Institute, and the University of the Philippines Population Institute.
(Sgd) LISA GRACE S. BERSALES
National Statistician
Technical Notes
The 2010 Census-based regional population projections utilized the cohort-component method, which is the same method used for the national population projections. The cohort-component method takes into account the three demographic processes namely: fertility, mortality and migration, in projecting population. The methodology involves projecting separately the fertility rates by age of women, 15-49 years, and the survival ratios and net migration rates by five-year age groups, for males and females.
Fertility
The fertility inputs used for the 2010 Census-based projections are the age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) and total fertility rates (TFRs) of women 15-49 years old for the base year, 2010, and the projected ASFRs and TFRs for the five-year periods, 2010-2015 to 2040-2045. The ASFRs and TFRs by region for the base year were taken from the 2003 National Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS), the 2008 NDHS or 2011 Family Health Survey (FHS).
The TFRs for year 2045 were computed by maintaining the ratio of the regional TFRs for the base year to the national base year estimate (3.125 children per woman). The end-period TFR at the national level is 1.791 under the medium series. The ratio method ensures that the projected regional TFRs are consistent with the projected national TFRs. In short, the degree of relationship between a regional TFR and the national TFR as of the base year, 2010, was maintained up to the end-year, 2045, of the projection period under the medium series.
Mortality
The regional population projections require the age-sex-specific death rates (ASDRs) by region, based on the registered deaths from the Vital Registration System for years 2008-2010, and the life table estimates of age-sex-specific survival ratios during the base year and the projection period, also by region. Life tables were constructed to derive the baseline age-specific survival ratios separately for males and females. The data on registered deaths for males and females by age, adjusted for incompleteness of registration, were used to compute the baseline life tables. The age-sex-specific survival ratios for the projection period were taken from the life tables for the five-year projection periods, 2010-2015 to 2040-2045. These life tables were constructed by extrapolating the baseline ASDRs based on the General Pattern and Latin American Pattern of the UN Model Life Tables and projected under-five mortality rates for males and females by region.
Migration
Two types of migration inputs were applied to generate the regional population projections – inter-regional migration and international migration. The baseline and projected age-sex-specific inter-regional migration rates were based on the 2010 Census data on residence 5 years ago. For international migration, the baseline and projected age-sex-specific net number of international migrants were based also on the 2010 Census data on residence 5 years ago, and the data on registered emigrants from the Commission on Filipinos Overseas.
