JANUARY 2013 AND DECEMBER 2012

The year started off with a higher national headline inflation rate of 3.0 percent from 2.9 percent in December. This was due to the double-digit annual growth in the beverages and tobacco index and higher annual increases in the indices of furnishing, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house; health; and communication. Inflation a year ago was 4.0 percent.

Excluding selected food and energy items, core inflation picked up to 3.6 percent in January from 3.3 percent in December.

Annual inflation in the National Capital Region (NCR) slowed down to 2.4 percent in January from 2.8 percent in December. The downtrend was brought about by the negative annual rate recorded in the transport index and slower annual increments in the indices of clothing and footwear; recreation and culture; and restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services.

Following the national trend, annual inflation in Areas Outside NCR (AONCR) went up to 3.3 percent in January from 2.9 percent in December. This was triggered by the double-digit annual growth in alcoholic beverages and tobacco index and faster annual changes in the indices of clothing and footwear; health; communication; recreation and culture; and restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services.

Year-on-Year Inflation Rates in the Philippines, All Items January 2008 - January 2013 (2006=100)
Month	Year
	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
January	4.6	7.1	3.9	4.0	4.0	3.0
February	5.1	7.2	3.9	4.7	2.7
March	5.8	6.7	3.9	4.9	2.6
April	7.3	5.6	4.0	4.7	3.0
May	8.2	4.3	3.9	4.9	2.9
June	9.4	3.2	3.6	5.2	2.8
July	10.2	2.2	3.8	4.9	3.2
August	10.5	1.7	4.1	4.6	3.8
September	10.1	2.3	3.8	4.7	3.6
October	9.7	2.9	3.3	5.2	3.1
November	9.1	3.5	3.7	4.7	2.8
December	7.8	4.4	3.6	4.2	2.9
Average	8.3	4.1	3.9	4.6	3.2

• Consumer prices at the start of the year generally increased by 0.5 percent from -0.1 percent in December. This was primarily attributed to the double-digit growth in the prices of alcoholic beverages and tobacco. In addition, price mark-ups were registered in selected food items such as fish, meat, corn, eggs and some spices and seasonings. Higher charges in electricity rates and upward adjustments in rental rates, increased salaries for household help and services rendered for the maintenance and minor repair of dwelling units and price mark-ups in some items for personal care and effects were likewise noticed in selected regions.

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  CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
  (2006=100)

  JANUARY 2013

By Region, Year-on-Year

• A slower growth was posted in NCR at 2.4 percent in January from 2.8 percent in December.

• With 12 regions recording higher annual increments, inflation in AONCR rose to 3.3 percent in January from 2.9 percent in December. The highest annual rate of 6.9 percent was still noted in Central Visayas while the lowest remained in Ilocos at 1.1 percent.

By Commodity Group, Year-on-Year

• The index for alcoholic beverages and tobacco in the Philippines registered double-digit annual mark-up at 17.3 percent in January from 5.1 percent in December. In addition, the annual change in furnishing, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house index grew by 4.9 percent from 4.8 percent; health index, 3.3 percent from 3.1 percent; and communication index, 0.5 percent from 0.4 percent. The other commodity groups had slower annual add-ons or retained their last month’s rate.

  A higher annual increase was noted in the country’s food alone index at 2.3 percent in January from 2.2 percent in December.

  The annual growth in the corn index went up to 5.0 percent in January from 4.5 percent in December; meat index, 1.7 percent from 1.6 percent; and fruit index, 5.6 percent from 5.5 percent. Those for the rest of the food groups were slower or had negative annual rates.

• In NCR, an annual decline of 0.2 percent was recorded in transport index in January from 0.4 percent in December. Moreover, the annual gain in clothing and footwear index eased to 6.7 percent from 7.4 percent; recreation and culture index, 2.3 percent from 4.9 percent; and restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services index, 1.2 percent from 3.6 percent. The food and non-alcoholic beverages index retained its previous month’s rate 2.1 percent; housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels index, 2.6 percent; communication index, 0.9 percent; and education index, 3.3 percent.

  • The annual adjustment in the food alone index in NCR inched up 2.0 percent in January from 1.9 percent in December.

  • A higher annual growth was seen in corn index at 3.3 percent in January from 3.1 percent in December; fruit index, 4.0 percent from 3.7 percent; and sugar, jam, honey, chocolate and confectionery index, 4.9 percent from 4.3 percent. Those for the rest of the food groups were slower or negative with the indices of meat and milk, cheese and egg retaining their previous month’s rate.

• In AONCR, a double-digit annual increment was noted in alcoholic beverages and tobacco index at 18.1 percent in January from 4.9 percent in December. The annual inflation for clothing and footwear index also climbed to 4.3 percent from 4.1 percent; health index, 3.3 percent from 3.1 percent; communication index, 0.3 percent from 0.2 percent; recreation and culture index, 1.9 percent from 1.8 percent; and restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services index, 3.4 percent from 3.0 percent. While the annual add-on in housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels index improved to 4.1 percent from 4.2 percent, movements in other commodity groups remained at their last month’s rate.

  • The annual growth for food alone index in AONCR moved up by 2.3 percent in January, the same rate recorded in December.

  • A faster annual hike was seen in corn index at 5.0 percent in January from 4.6 percent in December; meat index, 1.5 percent from 1.3 percent; and fruit index, 6.1 percent from 5.9 percent.

  • With nine regions recording slower or negative annual rate, the annual inflation of the rice index settled to 1.9 percent in January from 2.0 percent in December. The biggest deceleration of 2.8 percentage points was observed in SOCCSKSARGEN (1.8% from 4.6%).

  • Lower annual upticks were registered in all the other food groups with the indices for oils and fats and vegetables continuing to post annual declines.

By Region, Month-on-Month

By Commodity Group, Month-on-Month

• At the national level, prices of consumer items advanced by 0.5 percent in January from -0.1 percent in December. This was mainly effected by the 11.9 percent acceleration in the index of alcoholic beverages and tobacco. Except for the index of education, the rest of the commodity groups also had higher monthly rates.

  • The difficulty in catching fish during the cold mornings along with the strong winds limited the volume of supplies of selected fish species in the markets, thereby pushing up their prices during the month. Thus, the fish index in the Philippines rose 1.3 percent and in AONCR, 1.5 percent. On the contrary, the fish index in NCR declined by 0.2 percent as prices of shrimps, crabs, mussels and other fish species which were priced higher during the holidays generally went down during the month.

  • The meat index in AONCR went up 0.3 percent due to price hikes in fresh meat such as pork and beef and processed meat. Meanwhile, in NCR, the price gains in pork and beef were offsetted by the price declines in chicken. Hence, the group’s index in the area registered a zero growth. The national index for meat grew by 0.2 percent.

  • Upward price adjustments in selected spices, condiments and seasonings generally raised the indices for food products not elsewhere classified in the Philippines and AONCR by 0.9 percent and in NCR, 1.0 percent.

  • The indices for milk, cheese and egg in the Philippines and NCR inched up 0.2 percent and AONCR, 0.1 percent. This can be attributed to higher prices of eggs as lower production was reported due to the cold weather conditions that prevailed during the month resulting to lower supplies in the markets.

  • The index of corn in the Philippines and AONCR rose 0.9 percent. This was effected by the reduced volume of supplies of corn in the areas affected by typhoon “Pablo” particularly those in Mindanao regions. Similarly, the index for corn in NCR climbed 0.2 percent from zero percent change.

  • Prices of mango and watermelon went down during the month in NCR. This resulted to a 0.1 percent reduction in the fruit index in the area. On the other hand, price add-ons in banana and apple were noted in many regions while those for papaya and pineapple went down during the month. Moreover, mixed price adjustments in mango were observed among the regions. These offsetting price movements of fruits among the regions in AONCR caused the fruit index in the area to move up at a slower rate of 0.5 percent from 0.6 percent and in the Philippines, 0.3 percent from 0.7 percent.

  • The harvest of palay during the last quarter of 2012 brought enough supplies of rice in the markets. This pushed down the rice index in the three areas: Philippines, -0.3 percent; NCR, -1.0 percent; and AONCR, -0.2 percent.

  • The vegetables index in AONCR dropped by 0.5 percent as sufficient supplies of vegetables in the markets lowered their prices during the month. On the contrary, price hikes in vegetables in NCR markets particularly chayote, ampalaya and stringbeans due to limited supplies coming from the traditional sources pegged an increase of 0.9 percent in the group’s index in the area. At the national level, the vegetables index decreased by 0.3 percent.

• With the implementation of Republic Act No. 10351 or Sin Tax Reform Act of 2012, prices of alcoholic beverages and tobacco escalated in all the regions. Thus, the group’s index in the Philippines soared by 11.9 percent in January from 0.3 percent in December; NCR, 7.1 percent from 0.4 percent; and AONCR, 12.8 percent from 0.3 percent.

• The index for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels in the Philippines climbed 0.5 percent in January from -0.2 percent in December; NCR, 0.7 percent from -0.6 percent; AONCR, 0.4 percent from -0.1 percent. This was triggered by higher charges in electricity rates and increased rental rates together with upward adjustments in the salaries for the services of carpenters, plumbers, electricians and painters in selected regions.

• Increments in the prices of selected items for personal care and effects and the price add-ons in meals eaten outside the home in selected regions raised the indices for restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services in the Philippines by 0.3 percent and AONCR, 0.4 percent. In NCR, the group’s index inched up 0.1 percent as higher charges for the services of beauty shops and some items for personal care went up during the period.

NOTE:

1. The second phase survey reports from Zambales and Tawi-tawi were not received as of February 4, 2013.

2. CPIs and inflation rates by province and selected city are also available upon request at NSO, Industry and Trade Statistics Department, Economic and Indicators Division (Telephone Numbers: 716-39-35 and 715-33-47).

(Sgd.) CARMELITA N. ERICTA
Administrator