Month-on-Month Growth Rates

The month-on-month growth rate of the seasonally adjusted CPI for all items at the national level improved to 0.1 percent in October from 0.6 percent in September. A slower monthly increment was observed in alcoholic beverages and tobacco index at 1.0 percent from 1.1 percent and health index, 0.2 percent from 0.3 percent. Meanwhile, a higher monthly gain was recorded in clothing and footwear index at 0.5 percent from 0.2 percent. The rate of change of the seasonally adjusted CPI for furnishing, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house; recreation and culture and restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services remained at their last month’s rate of 0.2 percent and education, 0.3 percent. The seasonally adjusted CPI for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels posted a zero growth during the month.

Seasonal factor like the increase in production of selected goods in preparation for the holiday season pushed up the index for all items; furnishing, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house index; and education index relative to the expected trend. This seasonal factor however pushed down the indices for alcoholic beverages and tobacco; clothing and footwear; housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels; health; and restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services. No effect was seen in the index of recreation and culture during the period.

Compared to last month, the seasonally adjusted CPI for furnishing, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house advanced 0.2 percent in October from -0.1 percent in September. On the other hand, the indices of non-food and transport dropped by 0.2 percent from their respective last month’s rates of 1.1 percent and 0.2 percent. Meanwhile, movements in the indices of alcoholic beverages and tobacco and education remained at 0.7 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively.

Higher production of selected goods pushed down the aggregate non-food index and alcoholic beverages and tobacco index. However, this seasonal factor raised the indices of furnishing, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house; transport; and education.

In AONCR, a higher monthly uptick was noted in recreation and culture index at 0.2 percent in October from 0.1 percent in September. The increase in education index eased to 0.3 percent from 0.4 percent and housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels and health indices, 0.2 percent from 0.4 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively. The seasonally adjusted CPI for the following commodity groups retained their last month’s rate: alcoholic beverages and tobacco (1.2%); clothing and footwear (0.3%); furnishing, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house and restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services (0.2%).

The seasonal factor of bigger production of selected goods in preparation for the holiday season generally pulled down the indices for alcoholic beverages and tobacco; housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels; furnishing, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house; and health. While this seasonal factor pushed up the indices for recreation and culture and education, it did not affect the seasonally adjusted CPI for clothing and footwear and restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services relative to the expected trend.