HIGHLIGHTS

As of September 1, 2018, the updated third quarter 2018 production estimates on palay and corn based on standing crop may be less than the July 2018 Round estimates.

PALAY

• Palay production for July-September 2018 may fall to 3.25 million metric tons, 2.3 percent below the July 2018 round estimate of 3.32 million metric tons and 4.2 percent lower than the previous year’s output of 3.39 million metric tons. (Figure 1). Harvest area may decline by 3.4 percent from 852.63 thousand hectares level in 2017. Likewise, yield per hectare may fall to 3.94 metric tons from 3.98 metric tons.

• The effect of southwest monsoon or “Habagat” in July, enhanced by typhoons “Henry”, “Inday” and “Josie” during the reproductive and maturing stages of the crop may cause the probable drop in palay production in most provinces of Northern Luzon. Bulk of the decrement may come from Nueva Ecija.
• About 281.73 thousand hectares or 34.21 percent of the updated standing crop have been harvested.
• Of the 2,260.84 thousand hectares standing crop, 26.2 percent were at vegetative stage, 56.2 percent at reproductive stage, and 17.6 percent at maturing stage (Figure 2).
• As to the planting intentions of farmers for the October-December 2018 crop, around 1,718.95 thousand hectares or 89.1 percent of these have been actually planted.

CORN

• Corn production for July-September 2018 may slightly decrease to 2.176 million metric tons, 0.2 percent lower than the estimates of 2.182 million metric tons  in July 2018 and 16.0 percent below the previous year’s level of 2.589 million metric tons (Figure 3). Harvest area may lessen to 783.72 thousand hectares from 884.21 thousand hectares in 2017. Yield per hectare may decrease to 2.78 metric tons from 2.93 metric tons.

• The effects of “Habagat”, which cut-down the yield in Negros Oriental, South Cotabato and Sarangani, may contribute to the decline in production.
• Yield in Cebu may decline due to insufficient soil moisture during vegetative stage.
• About 459.01 thousand hectares or 58.57 percent of the updated standing crop have been harvested.
• Of the updated 829.41 thousand hectares of standing crop, about 28.3 percent were at vegetative stage, 34.7 percent at reproductive stage, and 37.0 percent at maturing stage (Figure 4).
• Around 504.69 thousand hectares or 73.8 percent of the planting intentions for October-December 2018 crop have been realized.

VIVIAN  R. ILARINA
Assistant National Statistician, MAS Sectoral Statistics Office
Officer-in-Charge