HIGHLIGHTS

The updated July-September 2018 production on palay and corn standing crop as of 01 August 2018 may decline from the July 2018 Round estimates. These were lesser than their respective levels in 2017.

PALAY

• As of 01 August 2018, palay production for July-September 2018 based on standing crop may decrease to 3.25 million metric tons from 3.32 million metric tons estimate in July 2018 round or a decrease of 2.3 percent. Compared to previous year’s level, this may go down by 4.2 percent. (Figure 1). Harvest area may decline by 3.3 percent from 852.63 thousand hectares level in 2017. Likewise, yield per hectare may be lessened  from  3.98  metric tons to 3.94 metric tons.

• Probable drop in palay production may be attributed to the effect of southwest monsoon or “Habagat” in July, during the reproductive and maturing stages of the crop in most provinces of Northern Luzon. Bulk of the decrement may come from Nueva Ecija. Moreover, recent typhoons “Henry”, “Inday” and “Josie” may affect the output in Pampanga and Tarlac.
• Yield may decline in Iloilo and South Cotabato due to infestation of rice bugs and black bugs, respectively.
• On the standing crop, around 101.96 thousand hectares or 12.4 percent had been harvested.
• More than half (73.90 %) of the 2,011.65 thousand hectares of standing crop were still at vegetative stage, about 17.6 percent at reproductive stage, and the remaining 8.5 percent at maturing stage (Figure 2).
• As for the farmer’s planting intentions for October-December 2018, about 1,289.41 thousand hectares or 66.8 percent of the perceived area have been actually planted.

CORN

• The updated corn production for July-September 2018 based on standing crop as of 01 August 2018 may contract to 2.176 million metric tons, down by 0.3 percent from the 2.182 million metric tons estimate in July 2018. This is lesser by 16.0 percent from the previous year’s level of 2.589 million metric tons (Figure 3). Harvest area may decrease to 783.60 thousand hectares from 884.21 thousand hectares in 2017. Likewise, yield per hectare may decline from 2.93 metric tons to 2.78 metric tons.

• The probable cut-back in corn production may also be attributed to the effect of “Habagat” which may pull down the yield in Negros Oriental, South Cotabato and Sarangani.
• Yield may decrease in Cebu due to insufficient soil moisture during vegetative stage of corn.
• Decrement of corn area in Mindoro Oriental was caused by flood from typhoon Josie last July.
• As of 01 August 2018, around 148.85 thousand hectares or 19.0 percent of the standing crop have been harvested.
• Almost half (46.4%) of  the 1,195.34 thousand hectares of standing crop were at vegetative stage. About 29.0 percent and 24.6 percent were at reproductive and maturing stage, respectively (Figure 4).
• With reference to the farmer’s planting intentions for October-December 2018, about 560 thousand hectares (81.9%) have been planted.

ROSALINDA P. BAUTISTA
(Director II)
Officer-In-Charge
Sectoral Statistics Office