HIGHLIGHTS

The updated January-March 2018 production estimates on palay and corn based on standing crop as of March 1, 2018 may decrease from the January 2018 Round estimates.

The possible down trend in output may be attributed to the reduction in harvest area and yield due to flashflood and lodging of crop in the later part of 2017, occurrence of heavy rains and infestation of pests during the current quarter.

PALAY

• The palay production for January-March 2018 based on standing crop as of 01 March 2018 may shrink to 4.59 million MT. This is 1.7 percent lower from the January 2018 round estimate of 4.67 million MT and 3.9 percent higher than the previous year’s output of 4.42 million MT (Figure 1). Harvest area may diminish by 3,057 hectares from 1,192.53 thousand hectares harvest area in 2017. Yield may fall to 3.86 MT per hectare from 3.92 MT level.

• The probable decrease in palay production may be attributed to the reduction of harvest area in Zamboanga Sibugay, Davao Norte and North Cotabato due to effects of typhoon Vinta in the later part of 2017.
• The foreseen decrease in yield may be due to the effects of typhoon Urduja in Capiz; occurrence of heavy rains in Isabela, Mindoro Oriental, Leyte and Sultan Kudarat; and rice bug infestation in Tarlac, Iloilo and South Cotabato.
• About 559.15 thousand hectares or 47.0 percent of the updated standing crop have been harvested.
• Of the updated standing palay crop, 21.3 percent were at vegetative stages, 42.5 percent at reproductive stage and 36.1 percent at maturing stage (Figure 2).
• As to the farmers’ planting intentions for the April-June 2018 crop, about 821.84 thousand hectares or 90.3 percent of the perceived harvest area have been actually planted.

CORN

• The January-March 2018 corn production based on standing crop as of  01  March  2018,  may  drop  to 2.46 million MT from the January 2018 round estimate. This is 0.9 percent lesser than the January 2018 round estimate of 2.49 million MT and 4.1 percent higher than the previous year’s output of 2.37 million MT (Figure 3). Harvest area may decline by 0.1 percent from the 720.96 thousand hectares level. Likewise, yield per hectare may decrease from 3.45 MT per hectare to 3.42 MT per hectare.

• The probable decrement in corn output may be attributed to:
  • Contraction in harvest area and yield brought about the effects of typhoon Vinta in Zamboanga Sur and Zamboanga Norte in the later part of 2017; and
  • Decrease in yield due to infestation of planthopper in Ifugao and rats in South Cotabato and Sarangani; and effects of continuous rains in Isabela and Negros Oriental.
• About 447.50 thousand hectares or 62.1 percent of the updated standing crop have been harvested.
• Of the updated standing corn crop, about 20.8 percent were at vegetative stage, 34.6 percent at reproductive stage and 44.6 percent at maturing stage (Figure 4).
• About 310.02 thousand hectares or 77.3 percent of the planting intentions of the farmers for the January-March 2018 have been realized.

VIVIAN R.ILARINA
Assistant National Statistician
Macroeconomic Accounts Service
Officer-in-Charg

Technical Notes

Production refers to the quantity produced and actually harvested for a particular crop during the reference period. For palay and corn, harvest area refers to the actual area harvested/to be harvested during the reference quarter.

Updates on production and harvest area estimates of palay and corn are generated from the Monthly Palay and Corn Situation Reporting System (MPCSRS). It is a monitoring activity conducted monthly in-between Palay and Corn Production Survey (PCPS) rounds. Monitoring are conducted in February, March, May, June, August, September and November. MPCSRS updates the quarterly estimates on production and area for the current quarter based on the PCPS results of the previous survey round.

The data generated from MPCSRS are as follows:

1. Updates on current quarter's production and area estimates based on the standing crop with indications on crop situation; and

2. Updates on current quarter's estimates on planting intentions based on actual plantings.