HIGHLIGHTS

As of August 1, 2017, the updated third quarter 2017 production forecasts on palay based on standing crop may be lesser than the July 2017 Round forecasts. On the other hand, the probable corn output may be greater than from the July 2017 Round forecasts.

The expected slight decrement in palay production may be attributed to the effects of flash flood, late plantings, rice blast infestation and occurrence of tungro. The slight increment in corn production may be due to usage of high yielding variety seeds.

PALAY

• Palay production for July-September 2017 may slightly decrease to 3.36 million MT, 0.80 percent below the  July 2017 round  forecast  of 3.39 million MT and 13.3 percent higher than the previous year’s output of 2.97 million MT (Figure 1). Harvest  area  may  decline  by 0.10 percent from 852.61 thousand hectares’ level. Likewise, yield per hectare may fall to 3.95 MT from 3.98 MT.

• The probable decrement in palay production may be attributed to:
  • Reduction in harvest area and yield caused by flashflood in South and North Cotabato;
  • Lower yield in Sultan Kudarat, Lanao Sur and Maguindanao;
  • Late plantings due to late release of irrigation water in Bulacan;
  • Rice blast infestation in Negros Oriental; and
  • Occurrence of tungro in Aurora during vegetative stage of the crop.
• About 123.93 thousand hectares or 15 percent of the updated standing crop have been harvested. As to the planting intentions of farmers for the October-December 2017 crop, around 1,300.13 thousand hectares or 70.7 percent of these have been actually planted.
• Of the 2,028.0 thousand hectares standing palay crop, 73.0 percent were at vegetative stage; 18.2 percent, at reproductive stage and 8.8 percent, at maturing stage (Figure 2).

CORN

• Corn production for July-September 2017 may rise to 2.634 million MT, 0.2 percent higher than the earlier forecast of 2.630 million MT and may be 1.1 percent lower than previous  year’s  level  of 2.662 million MT (Figure 3). However, harvest area may fall to 891.72  thousand  hectares  from 891.78 thousand hectares. Overall, yield  may  remain  the  same  at 2.95 MT per hectare.

• Maguindanao shared a substantial increase in the expected corn output resulting from use of high yielding varieties, less occurrence of disease and pests’ infestation, and sufficient rainfall during flowering stage of the crop.
• About 174.55 thousand hectares of the updated standing crop have been harvested. Around 201.98 thousand hectares or 33.9 percent of the planting intentions for the October-December 2017 have been realized.
• Of the updated 919.13 thousand hectares of standing corn crop, about 26.8 percent were at vegetative stage; 39.1 percent, at reproductive stage and 34.1 percent, at maturing stage (Figure 4).

ROMEO S. RECIDE
Assistant Secretary
Deputy National Statistician
Sectoral Statistics Office

Technical Notes

Production refers to the quantity produced and actually harvested for a particular crop during the reference period. For palay and corn, harvest area refers to the actual area harvested/to be harvested during the reference quarter.

Updates on production and harvest area forecasts of palay and corn are generated from the Monthly Palay and Corn Situation Reporting System (MPCSRS). It is a monitoring activity conducted monthly in-between Palay and Corn Production Survey (PCPS) rounds. Monitoring are conducted in February, March, May, June, August, September and November. MPCSRS updates the quarterly forecasts on production and area for the current quarter based on the PCPS results of the previous survey round.

The data generated from MPCSRS are as follows:

1. Updates on current quarter’s production and area forecasts based on the standing crop with indications on crop situation; and

2. Updates on current quarter’s forecast on planting intentions based on actual plantings.