HIGHLIGHTS

As of May 1, 2017, the updated second quarter 2017 production forecasts on palay and corn based on standing crop may be lower than the April 2017 Round forecasts.

The expected decline in palay production may be due to the reduction of yield brought about by the effect of continuous rainfall during the vegetative and reproductive stages of the crops. In some provinces, this was also affected by insufficient water supply and incidence of pests. For corn, the decrease in yield which may contribute to the decline in output could be attributed to the effect of flash flood, rat infestation and usage of low quality seeds.

PALAY

• Palay production for April-June 2017 may drop to 4.10 million MT, 0.6 percent below the April 2017 round forecast of 4.13 million MT but 10.5 percent higher than the previous year’s output of 3.71 million MT (Figure 1). Harvest area may increase by 0.02 percent from 0.95 million hectares level. Likewise, yield per hectare may decrease from 4.35 MT to 4.32 MT.

• The probable reduction in palay production may be attributed to:
  • Unfilled grains resulting from occurrence of rains during vegetative and reproductive stages of crop in Tarlac, Leyte and Southern Leyte;
  • Insufficient water supply in irrigated farms during reproductive stage in Aurora, Zambales, Batangas, Laguna and Rizal; and
  • Rat infestation in South Cotabato, Agusan Sur and Surigao Sur and incidence of rice black bugs and stemborers in some provinces.
• About 643.61 thousand hectares of the updated standing crop have been harvested. As to the planting intentions of farmers for the July-September 2017 crop, around 168.91 thousand hectares or 21.30 percent of these have been actually planted.
• Of the 474.11 thousand hectares standing palay crop, 34.2 percent were at vegetative stage; 27.3 percent, at reproductive stage and 38.5 percent, at maturing stage (Figure 2).

CORN

• Corn production for April-June 2017 may decrease to 1.315 million MT, 0.1 percent lower  than  the  earlier  forecast  of 1.317 million MT. On the other hand, it may be 44.4 percent higher than previous year’s level of 0.91 million MT (Figure 3). Harvest area may contract to 399.8 thousand hectares from 410.8 thousand hectares. On the contrary, yield may improve to 3.29 MT per hectare from 3.21 MT per hectare.

• The reduction of corn yield caused by flashflood and rat infestation in South Cotabato and usage of low quality seed in Tarlac may bring production to decline.
• About 200.28 thousand hectares of the updated standing crop have been harvested. Around 272.52 thousand hectare or 27.7 percent of the planting intentions for the July-September 2017 harvests have been materialized.
• Of the updated 472.04 thousand hectares of standing corn crop, about 59.6 percent were at vegetative stage; 17.0 percent, at reproductive stage and 23.4 percent, at maturing stage (Figure 4).

Technical Notes

Production refers to the quantity produced and actually harvested for a particular crop during the reference period. For palay and corn, harvest area refers to the actual area harvested/to be harvested during the reference quarter.

Updates on production and harvest area forecasts of palay and corn are generated from the Monthly Palay and Corn Situation Reporting System (MPCSRS). It is a monitoring activity conducted monthly in-between Palay and Corn Production Survey (PCPS) rounds. Monitorings are conducted in February, March, May, June, August, September and November. MPCSRS updates the quarterly forecasts on production and area for the current quarter based on the PCPS results of the previous survey round.

The data generated from MPCSRS are as follows:

1. Updates on current quarter’s production and area forecasts based on the standing crop with indications on crop situation; and

2. Updates on current quarter’s forecast on planting intentions based on actual plantings.