HIGHLIGHTS

As of November 1, 2016, the updated fourth quarter 2016 production forecast on palay and corn based on standing crop may be lower than the October 2016 Round forecast.

The expected reduction in palay production may be attributed to the contraction of harvest area and reduction of yield brought about by the adverse effects of tropical cyclones Karen and Lawin, incidence of pests and diseases and insufficient water supply in some provinces.

PALAY

• Palay production for October-December 2016 may reach  7.17  million MT, 1.8 percent below the October 2016 round forecast of 7.30 million MT and 1.5 percent lower than the last year’s output  of 7.27 million MT (Figure 1). Harvest area may contract from 1.91 million hectares to 1.88 million hectares, or by 1.3 percent. Likewise, yield per hectare may decrease to 3.81 MT from 3.83 MT.

• Probable reduction in palay production may be attributed to the adverse effects on harvest areas and yield caused by typhoons Karen and Lawin in October 2016. The typhoons hit the provinces of CAR, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, and Bicol.
• Reports of infestation of rats, black bugs and stemborers in South Cotabato, Laguna, Sarangani, Bukidnon, Surigao Sur, Leyte and Guimaras and incidence of bacterial leaf blight, rice blast and neckrot in Mindoro Oriental and Iloilo may contribute to lower palay production.
• Insufficient water supply due to inadequate irrigation water and less occurrence of rain during the vegetative and reproductive stages of crop was experienced in Quezon, Leyte, Aklan, and Southern Leyte which may cause production of these provinces to go down.
• About 1,245.36 thousand hectares of the updated standing crop have been harvested. Almost 309.93 thousand hectares or 26.7 percent of the planting intentions for the January-March 2017 crop have been realized.
• Of the 944.71 thousand hectares standing palay crop, 34.9 percent were at vegetative stage; 17.7 percent, at reproductive stage and 47.4 percent, at maturing stage (Figure 2).

CORN

• Corn production for October-December 2016 may decline to 1.74 million MT, 1.9 percent lower than the earlier forecast  of  1.77  million  MT  but 0.5 percent higher than last year’s level of 1.73 million MT (Figure 3). Harvest area may contract to 614.65 thousand hectares from 619.93 thousand hectares. Yield may decrease to 2.83 MT per hectare from 2.86 MT per hectare.

• The adverse effects of typhoons Karen and Lawin that hit the provinces of Apayao, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Cagayan, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora, Zambales, Cavite and Camarines Sur may bring down corn production in these provinces.
• Reports of rat infestations in Davao Oriental, South Cotabato, Sarangani, North Cotabato and Surigao Sur may cause yield reduction.
• The lingering effects of dry spell experienced from the previous quarters in Quirino, Leyte and Agusan Sur may also contribute to decrease in output.
• About 216.86 thousand hectares of the updated standing crop have been harvested. Around 238.34 thousand hectare or 34.8 percent of the planting intentions for the January-March 2017 harvests have been materialized.
• Of the updated 636.14 thousand hectares of standing corn crop, about 38.5 percent were at vegetative stage; 36.1 percent, at reproductive stage and 25.4 percent, at maturing stage (Figure 4).

Technical Notes

Production refers to the quantity produced and actually harvested for a particular crop during the reference period. For palay and corn, harvest area refers to the actual area harvested/to be harvested during the reference quarter.

Updates on production and harvest area forecasts of palay and corn are generated from the Monthly Palay and Corn Situation Reporting System (MPCSRS). It is a monitoring activity conducted monthly in-between Palay and Corn Production Survey (PCPS) rounds. Monitorings are conducted in February, March, May, June, August, September and November. MPCSRS updates the quarterly forecasts on production and area for the current quarter based on the PCPS results of the previous survey round.

The data generated from MPCSRS are as follows:

1. Updates on current quarter’s production and area forecasts based on the standing crop with indications on crop situation; and

2. Updates on current quarter’s forecast on planting intentions based on actual plantings.