HIGHLIGHTS

Based on standing crop as of June 1, 2016, the updated second quarter 2016 production forecast on palay may be lower than the April 2016 Round forecast. The decrease could be attributed to drop in yield and contraction of harvest areas brought about by the continued adverse effects of El Nino, insufficient irrigation water from major producing areas, and incidence of pests and disease in some provinces.

On the other hand, corn forecast to increase slightly may be due to expected improvement in yield resulting from sufficient water supply available during the reproductive stage of the crop. This was brought about by the occurrence of rainfall as rainy season starts. PAGASA declared the onset of rainy season and weak El Nino to end around month of July 2016.

PALAY

• Palay production for April-June 2016 may reach 3.67 million MT, lower by 1.4 percent than the April 2016 round forecast of 3.73 million MT and 7.1 percent below last year’s output of 3.96 million MT (Figure 1). Harvest  area  may  contract  from 0.852 million hectares to 0.849 million hectares. Overall yield per hectare may drop from 4.37 MT to 4.33 MT.

• Probable decrease in yield may be attributed to insufficient water supply and intense heat that affected the vegetative and reproductive stages of the crop in Cagayan, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Quezon, Sorsogon, Capiz, Bohol, Sultan Kudarat, Agusan Sur, and Surigao Norte which may bring production down.
• Contraction in harvest areas due to damages on standing palay crop caused by El Nino phenomenon were noted in Cagayan, Sorsogon, Bohol, Agusan Sur, and Surigao Norte. This may contribute to decline in production.
• The incidence of tungro disease in Aurora and infestation of brown planthopper and rats in Rizal, Leyte, Davao Oriental Surigao Norte and Surigao Sur may also cause cutback in output.
• Around 777 thousand hectares of the updated standing crop have been harvested. About 288 thousand hectares or 35.2 percent of the planting intentions for the July-September 2016 crop have been realized.
• Of the 361 thousand hectares standing palay crop, 51.8 percent were at vegetative stage; 28.3 percent, at reproductive stage and 19.9 percent, at maturing stage (Figure 2).

CORN

• Corn production for the second quarter of 2016  may  reach  914  thousand  MT, 0.5 percent above the earlier forecast of 909 thousand MT but 9.7 percent lower than last year’s level of 1,012 thousand MT (Figure 3). Harvest area may decline from 273 thousand hectares to 272 thousand hectares. Yield may rise to 3.36 MT per hectare from 3.33 MT per hectare of April 2016 round.

• The probable slight increment in corn output could be traced to the occurrence of rainfall during the reproductive stage of the crop that led to sufficient water supply in Cagayan and Tarlac.
• On the other hand, the expected decrease in output could be due to adverse effects of prolonged dry spell and infestation of rats in some areas in Davao Sur, Sultan Kudarat, and South Cotabato.
• About 232 thousand hectares of the updated standing crop have been harvested. Around 529 thousand hectares or 54.4 percent of the planting intentions for the July-September 2016 harvests have been materialized.
• Of the updated 569 thousand hectares of standing corn crop, about 75.3 percent were at vegetative stage; 17.2 percent, at reproductive stage and 7.5 percent, at maturing stage (Figure 4).

Technical Notes

Production refers to the quantity produced and actually harvested for a particular crop during the reference period. For palay and corn, harvest area refers to the actual area harvested/to be harvested during the reference quarter.

Updates on production and harvest area forecasts of palay and corn are generated from the Monthly Palay and Corn Situation Reporting System (MPCSRS). It is a monitoring activity conducted monthly in-between Palay and Corn Production Survey (PCPS) rounds. Monitorings are conducted in February, March, May, June, August, September and November. MPCSRS updates the quarterly forecasts on production and area for the current quarter based on the PCPS results of the previous survey round.

The data generated from MPCSRS are as follows:

1. Updates on current quarter’s production and area forecasts based on the standing crop with indications on crop situation; and

2. Updates on current quarter’s forecast of planting intentions based on actual plantings.