Introduction

These results were based on the interim Monthly Integrated Survey of Selected Industries (MISSI), a survey of the National Statistics Office (NSO) with the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI). The MISSI will eventually provide flash indicators on the performance of industrial enterprises such as production, sales, employment, compensation, inventory of raw materials and finished products, and capacity utilization. The integration of the NSO and DTI surveys is the key feature arising from a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) forged between the two offices along with the National Statistical Coordination Board, the Federation of Philippine Industries and the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

This interim survey will only cover the value and volume of production and sales in the manufacturing sector while the MISSI questionnaire is still being finalized. The results were based on a sample of about 500 firms/establishments throughout the country, supplemented with exports data from Garments and Textile Export Board (GTEB) and data from the Philippine Cement Corporation (PHILCEMCOR).

Executive Summary

The interim survey results showed that value of sales in January 1998 increased by 37.7 percent and volume by 24.2 percent over the same month last year despite the declines of 3.7 percent in the value of production and 12.7 percent in the volume.

On a month-on-month basis, value of sales increased by 21.7 percent and volume by 12.6 percent whereas value of production decreased by 12.4 percent and volume by 15.6 percent.

The slowdown in January 1998 production may be generally attributed to higher inventories, tighter credit, lower supplies of raw materials and anticipation of weaker demand in the coming months. This slowdown follows two successive months (November and December 1997) of double-digit growth in production volume as many manufacturers appeared to have used up remaining inventories of materials due to expectation of high Christmas consumer spending.

Sales in January, on the other hand, posted positive growth, which may be attributed to the sales of carry-over stocks of finished goods, the increase in peso value of exports and possible hedging in anticipation of higher prices in the following months.

Changes in Production and Sales: January 1998    

ANNEX 1-A

VALUE OF PRODUCTION

Year-on-year

The Value of Production in key manufacturing enterprises decreased by 3.7 percent in January 1998 compared to the same month last year. Decreases were observed in 8 out of 16 major sectors. These were led by transport equipment, which declined by 44.4 percent and contributed the biggest share (25.4%) to the downward pull on the year-on-year growth. Wood & wood products was lower by 50.9 percent; textile, by 25.4 percent; basic metals, by 18.2 percent; and non-metallic mineral products, by 21.4 percent.

On the other hand, electrical machinery increased by 22.8 percent and continued to contribute the biggest share (23.5%) to the year-on-year growth. This was followed by food manufacturing which gained 11.5 percent; wearing apparel, 35.6 percent; petroleum products, 8.9 percent; and chemicals, 12.6 percent.

Month-on-month

Value of production in January declined by 12.4 percent from the previous month. Eleven sectors registered reductions. Electrical machinery decreased by 25.3 percent from December 1997, contributing the biggest share of 27.1 percent to the downward pull on the month-on-month growth in production value. This was followed by wood and wood products, which declined by 65.6 percent; petroleum products, by 7.3 percent; food manufacturing, by 6.4 percent; and textile, by 19.1 percent.

On the other hand, rubber products with a 41.4 percent growth contributed the highest share of 34.7 percent to the positive component of the month-on-month performance. Similar sectors were paper & paper products, which increased by 15 percent, and beverage, by 24.1 percent.

VALUE OF PRODUCTION (JANUARY 1998)

GAINERS OVER LAST YEAR        YEAR-ON-YEAR     CONTRIBUTION TO

                              (unweighted)       THE OVERALL

                                 GROWTH          GROWTH RATE

Tobacco                          63.9%               1.2%

Wearing Apparel                  35.6%              21.4%

Electrical Machinery             22.8%              23.5%

Chemicals                        12.6%              11.1%

Food Manufacturing               11.5%              22.4%

Petroleum Products                8.9%              17.0%

Paper & Paper Products            6.4%               2.4%

Beverage                          4.6%               1.0%

LOSERS OVER LAST YEAR         YEAR-ON-YEAR     CONTRIBUTION TO

                              (unweighted)       THE OVERALL

                                 GROWTH          GROWTH RATE

Wood & Wood Products             -50.9%             -24.9%

Transport Equipment              -44.4%             -25.4%

Textile                          -25.4%             -18.1%

Non-Metallic Mineral             -21.4%             -10.1%

Products

Basic Metals                     -18.2%             -17.2%

Rubber Products                  -16.0%             - 3.2%

Furniture and Fixtures           -10.3%             - 0.8%

Miscellaneous                    - 4.2%             - 0.2%

Manufactures

GAINERS OVER LAST MONTH      MONTH-ON-MONTH    CONTRIBUTION TO

                              (unweighted)       THE OVERALL

                                 GROWTH          GROWTH RATE

Rubber Products                  41.4%              34.7%

Beverage                         24.1%              29.3%

Paper & Paper Products           15.0%              32.9%

Tobacco                          13.3%               1.4%

Miscellaneous                     7.1%               1.7%

Manufactures

LOSERS OVER LAST MONTH       MONTH-ON-MONTH    CONTRIBUTION TO

                              (unweighted)       THE OVERALL  

                                 GROWTH          GROWTH RATE

Wood & Wood Products             -65.6%             -24.1%

Furniture & Fixtures             -30.0%             - 1.7%

Electrical Machinery             -25.3%             -27.1%

Textile                          -19.1%             -10.3%

Transport Equipment              -10.0%             - 4.3%

Petroleum Products               - 7.3%             -14.6%

Food Manufacturing               - 6.4%             -13.0%

Non-Metallic Mineral             - 4.7%             - 1.7%

Products

Basic Metals                     - 3.8%             - 2.7%

Wearing Apparel                  - 0.7%             - 0.5%

Chemicals                        - 0.1%             - 0.1%

ANNEX 1-B 

VOLUME OF PRODUCTION

Year-on-year

The Volume of Production for key manufacturing enterprises reflected a year-on-year decrease of 12.7 percent. Decreases in output were posted by 12 sectors. Basic metals declined by 34.0 percent, contributing a share of 21.3 percent to the downward pull on the year-on-year performance. Other sectors that contributed to the downward pull were: wood and wood products, which decreased by 57.3 percent, transport equipment, by 48.5 percent; and textile, by 27.3 percent.

On the other hand, electrical machinery grew by 13.8 percent and it contributed the biggest share of 77.1 percent to the positive component of the Volume of Production. This was followed by chemicals, which increased by 3.6 percent.

Month-on-month

On a month-on-month basis, the Volume of Production decreased by 15.6 percent from December 1997. Electrical machinery declined by 27.3 percent, representing a 21.7 percent share to the downward pull on the month-on-month production volume. Wood & wood products fell by 65.6 percent; petroleum refineries, by 12.1 percent; and food manufacturing, by 11.8 percent.

On the other hand, rubber products increased by 42.1 percent and it contributed 41.8 percent to the positive component of the overall performance. Other sectors that contributed to the growth were paper & paper products, which grew by 13.1 percent, and beverage, by 14.1 percent.

VOLUME OF PRODUCTION INDEX (JANUARY 1998)

GAINERS OVER LAST YEAR        YEAR-ON-YEAR     CONTRIBUTION TO

                              (unweighted)       THE OVERALL

                                 GROWTH          GROWTH RATE 

Tobacco                          52.4%               5.1%

Electrical Machinery             13.8%              77.1%

Chemicals                         3.6%              17.2%

Beverage                          0.6%               0.6%       

LOSERS OVER LAST YEAR         YEAR-ON-YEAR     CONTRIBUTION TO

                              (unweighted)       THE OVERALL

                                 GROWTH          GROWTH RATE

Wood & Wood Products             -57.3%             -18.7%

Transport Equipment              -48.5%             -18.5%

Basic Metals                     -34.0%             -21.3%

Textile                          -27.3%             -13.0%

Rubber Products                  -15.6%             - 2.1%

Furniture & Fixtures             -15.5%             - 0.8%

Other Manufacturing              -14.5%             - 0.6%

Industries

Non-Metallic Mineral             -14.4%             - 4.5%

Products

Wearing Apparel                  -14.3%             - 8.0%

Paper & Paper Products           - 8.0%             - 2.8%

Petroleum Refineries             - 4.6%             - 8.0%

Food Manufacturing               - 1.0%             - 1.8%

GAINERS OVER LAST MONTH      MONTH-ON-MONTH    CONTRIBUTION TO

                              (unweighted)       THE OVERALL

                                 GROWTH          GROWTH RATE

Rubber Products                  42.1%              41.8%

Beverage                         14.1%              20.2%

Paper & Paper Products           13.1%              33.9%

Other Manufacturing              10.4%               3.0%

Industries

Tobacco                           8.5%               1.1%

LOSERS OVER LAST MONTH       MONTH-ON-MONTH    CONTRIBUTION TO

                              (unweighted)       THE OVERALL

                                 GROWTH          GROWTH RATE   

Wood & Wood Products             -65.6%            -17.9%

Furniture & Fixtures             -33.5%            - 1.4%

Electrical Machinery             -27.3%            -21.7%

Textile                          -22.2%            - 8.8%

Transport Equipment              -14.2%            - 4.5%

Petroleum Refineries             -12.1%            -17.9%

Food Manufacturing               -11.8%            -17.7%

Wearing Apparel                  -10.1%            - 4.7%

Basic Metals                     - 5.6%            - 2.9%

Non-Metallic Mineral             - 5.0%            - 1.3%

Products

Chemicals                        - 1.7%            - 1.1%

ANNEX 2-A 

VALUE OF SALES

Year-on-year

The value of sales for the manufacturing sector for January 1998 registered a 37.7 percent increase compared to same month last year. Food processing posted the biggest increase of 64.5 percent and it contributed 32.2 percent to the year-on-year growth. This was followed by chemicals, which increased by 112.2 percent, and electrical machinery, by 55.2 percent.

On the other hand, weak performers in terms of sales value included basic metals, which declined by 20.6 percent and contributed 46.4 percent to the downward pull on overall growth, and wood and wood products, which declined by 23.8 percent. The decline in these two sectors was mainly caused by weak demand due to the deferment of construction projects. Other sectors that registered significant decreases were textile (-8.2%) and non-metallic mineral products (-10.7%), which include cement and glass.

Month-on-month

On a month-on-month basis, the manufacturing sector posted a 21.7 percent increase. Rubber products increased by 442.7 percent from December 1997, contributing 27.0 percent to the overall growth in sales value. Other sectors that had sales value significantly increased were food manufacturing, which grew by 25.4 percent largely due to the 76.3 percent growth in sugar, and chemicals, by 50.9 percent.

On the other hand, basic metals decreased by 34.5 percent, contributing 75.7 percent to the downward pull on the month-on-month performance, followed by textiles, which declined by 8.9 percent.

SALES VALUE (JANUARY 1998)

GAINERS OVER LAST YEAR           YEAR-ON-YEAR          CONTRIBUTION TO THE

                           (unweighted) GROWTH RATE    OVERALL GROWTH RATE

Chemicals                            112.2%                   25.5%

Tobacco                               77.1%                    0.4%

Food Processing                       64.5%                   32.2%

Wearing Apparel                       59.7%                    9.2%

Pulp and Paper Products               56.5%                    5.5%

Electrical Machinery                  55.2%                   14.6%

Miscellaneous                         54.3%                    0.6%

Manufactures

Furniture & Fixtures                  35.2%                    0.5%

Beverage                              31.1%                    1.7%

Transport Equipment                   30.2%                    3.2%

Rubber Products                       16.7%                    0.6%

Petroleum Products                    12.3%                    6.1%

Chemicals                            112.2%                   25.5%

Tobacco                               77.1%                    0.4%

Food Processing                       64.5%                   32.2%

Wearing Apparel                       59.7%                    9.2%

Pulp and Paper Products               56.5%                    5.5%

Electrical Machinery                  55.2%                   14.6%

Miscellaneous                         54.3%                    0.6%

Manufactures

Furniture & Fixtures                  35.2%                    0.5%

Beverage                              31.1%                    1.7%

Transport Equipment                   30.2%                    3.2%

Rubber Products                       16.7%                    0.6%

Petroleum Products                    12.3%                    6.1%

LOSERS OVER LAST YEAR           YEAR-ON-YEAR           CONTRIBUTION TO THE

                          (unweighted) GROWTH RATE     OVERALLGROWTH RATE

Textile                              - 8.2%                 - 13.9%

Wood-based                           -23.8%                 - 27.7%

Non-Metallic Mineral                 -10.7%                 - 12.0%

Products

Basic Metals                         -20.6%                 - 46.4%

GAINERS OVER LAST MONTH          MONTH-ON-MONTH         CONTRIBUTION TO THE

                            (unweighted) GROWTH RATE    OVERALL GROWTH RATE

Rubber Products                       442.7%                    27.0%

Miscellaneous                          70.8%                     1.2%

Manufactures

Pulp & Paper Products                  56.6%                     9.0%

Chemicals                              50.9%                    19.0%

Transport Equipment                    48.3%                     8.4%

Food Manufacturing                     25.4%                    20.8%

Electrical Machinery                   18.1%                     7.9%

Wearing Apparel                        14.9%                     3.8%

Non-Metallic Mineral                    6.5%                     0.9%

Products

Petroleum Products                      2.5%                     2.0%

Furniture & Fixtures                    0.4%                     0.0%

Tobacco                                 0.02%                    0.0%

LOSERS OVER LAST MONTH          MONTH-ON-MONTH         CONTRIBUTION TO THE

                           (unweighted) GROWTH RATE    OVERALL GROWTH RATE 

Basic Metals                        -34.5%                 -75.7%

Beverage                            -13.0%                 - 8.8%

Textile                             - 8.9%                 -14.7%

Wood & Wood Products                - 0.7%                 - 0.8%

ANNEX 2-B 

VOLUME OF SALES

Year-on-year

Sales volume in manufacturing in January 1998 increased by 24.2 percent over the same month last year. Chemicals registered the biggest year-on-year growth of 113.3 percent, contributing 36.2 percent to the growth in sales volume. Food manufactures gained 50.7 percent and wearing apparel, 50.2 percent.

On the other hand, three sectors registered significant decreases as follows: basic metals, -36.1 percent (contributing 52.1% to the downward pull on overall growth); textile, -31.5 percent; and petroleum products, -3.1 percent.

Month-on-month

Sales volume in January 1998 grew by 12.6 percent over the previous month. Nine sectors registered increases. Food manufactures increased by 26.5 percent and it contributed 28.5 percent to the month-on-month growth in sales volume. Other notable sectors were: chemicals, which gained 51.7 percent; rubber products, 242.8 percent; transport equipment, 60.5 percent; and pulp and paper, 49.5 percent.

Decreases in month-on-month sales volume were observed in 7 sectors. Petroleum products decreased by 16.9 percent and contributed the biggest downward pull of 53.2 percent to overall growth. Wood and wood products declined by 33.2 percent; textile, by 14.2 percent; and basic metals, by 9.3 percent.

SALES VOLUME (JANUARY 1998)

GAINERS OVER LAST YEAR           YEAR-ON-YEAR          CONTRIBUTION TO THE

                           (unweighted) GROWTH RATE    OVERALL GROWTH RATE

Chemicals                           113.3%                   36.2%

Miscellaneous                        53.2%                    0.8%

Manufactures

Food Manufacturing                   50.7%                   35.5%

Wearing Apparel                      50.2%                   10.9%

Paper & Paper Products               47.5%                    6.5%

Beverage                             33.3%                    2.5%

Rubber Products                      23.7%                    1.2%

Transport Equipment                  20.9%                    3.1%

Tobacco                              15.4%                    0.1%

Electrical Machinery                 5.8%                     2.2%

Wood & Wood Products                 5.2%                     0.7%

Non-Metallic Mineral                 3.3%                     0.4%

Products

LOSERS OVER LAST YEAR          YEAR-ON-YEAR         CONTRIBUTION TO THE

                         (unweighted) GROWTH RATE   OVERALL GROWTH RATE

Basic Metals                      -36.1%                    - 52.1%

Textile                           -31.5%                    - 34.4%

Furniture & Fixtures              - 9.3%                    -  1.1%

Petroleum Products                - 3.1%                    - 12.4%

GAINERS OVER LAST MONTH          MONTH-ON-MONTH         CONTRIBUTION TO THE

                            (unweighted) GROWTH RATE    OVERALL GROWTH RATE

Rubber Products                      242.8%                   19.4%

Miscellaneous                         70.9%                    1.6%

Manufactures

Transport Equipment                   60.5%                   13.8%

Chemicals                             51.7%                   25.3%

Pulp & Paper Products                 49.5%                   10.3%

Food Manufacturing                    26.5%                   28.5%

Non-Metallic Mineral                   3.3%                    0.6%

Products

Wearing Apparel                        0.9%                    0.3%

Electrical Machinery                   0.1%                    0.03%

LOSERS OVER LAST MONTH        MONTH-ON-MONTH        CONTRIBUTION TO THE

                         (unweighted) GROWTH RATE   OVERALL GROWTH RATE 

Wood & Wood Products               -33.2%                 - 19.2%

Petroleum Products                 -16.9%                 - 53.2%

Textile                            -14.2%                 - 12.1%

Beverage                           -11.2%                 -  3.8%

Furniture & Fixtures               -11.0%                 -  1.0%

Basic Metals                       - 9.3%                 - 10.4%

Tobacco                            - 9.2%                 -  0.3%

Source: National Statistics Office