OCTOBER AND SEPTEMBER 2002

• Year-on-year inflation slowed down to 2.7 percent in October from 2.9 percent in September as the inflation rates of food, beverages and tobacco (FBT) and housing and repairs (H&R) decelerated. Inflation a year ago was 5.5 percent.

  • Similarly, inflation rate in the National Capital Region (NCR) decreased by 0.3 percentage point to 2.6 percent in October from 2.9 percent in September, the lowest inflation since February 2000. This was brought about by the slowdowns in the inflation rates of FBT, H&R and fuel, light and water (FLW).

  • Inflation rate in Areas Outside the National Capital Region (AONCR) remained at its September rate of 2.8 percent.

• Month-on-month inflation decreased to -0.1 percent in October from 0.2 percent in September primarily brought about by the reduction in the prices of food items such as rice, corn, fish, fruits, vegetables and meat.

  

>By Region, Year-on-Year

The inflation rate for the National Capital Region (NCR) slipped by 0.3 percentage point to 2.6 percent in October from 2.9 percent in September.

Inflation in Areas Outside the National Capital Region (AONCR) remained at its previous month's rate of 2.8 percent as mixed trends were observed in the regions. Compared to September 2002 rates, seven regions posted higher rates, five regions had lower rates and three regions retained their previous month's rate. The biggest increase was registered in Central Luzon at 0.7 percentage point followed by Western Mindanao at 0.6 percentage point. The highest inflation rate was recorded in Northern Mindanao at 4.5 percent while the lowest rate was in Cagayan Valley at 1.7 percent.

>By Commodity Group, Year-on-Year

The inflation rates for FBT and H&R correspondingly slid to 1.9 percent and 4.3 percent in October from their respective September rates of 2.2 percent and 4.5 percent. On the other hand, inflation for FLW went up to 1.2 percent in October from 0.8 percent in September and services, 4.7 percent from 4.5 percent. Inflation for clothing and miscellaneous items remained at 2.5 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively.

• The inflation rate for food alone slowed to 1.8 percent in October from 2.2 percent in September. The price of rice decelerated to 4.2 percent in October from 5.3 percent in September; corn, 3.3 percent from 3.7 percent; fruits and vegetables, 0.5 percent from 1.9 percent; and meat, -1.3 percent from =0.9 percent. Meanwhile, the price of cereal preparations went up to 3.4 percent from 3.2 percent; dairy products, 1.9 percent from 1.8 percent; eggs, 0.2 percent from zero growth; and fish, 1.4 percent from 1.1 percent.

In NCR, inflation rate for FBT slowed down to 0.1 percent in October from 0.7 percent in September; H&R, 5.3 percent from 5.6 percent; and FLW, 2.3 percent from 2.6 percent. However, inflation rate for services slightly moved up to 5.1 percent from 5.0 percent while inflation for clothing and miscellaneous items moved at their respective September rates of 3.4 percent and 1.2 percent.

• The inflation rate for food alone in NCR went down to -0.1 percent in October from 0.7 percent in September. Negative rates were posted in the price of corn, -18.9 percent from -16.7 percent; meat, -3.6 percent from -2.9 percent; fish, -5.1 percent from -4.8 percent; and eggs, -2.3 percent from -3.5 percent. In addition, slower rates were noticed in the prices of fruits and vegetables, 2.1 percent from 5.6 percent; cereals, 2.7 percent from 3.2 percent; and rice, 3.1 percent from 3.6 percent.

In AONCR, the rate for FBT moved down to 2.4 percent in October from 2.6 percent in September. Inflation for FLW rose to 0.6 percent from zero growth and services, 4.6 percent from 4.3 percent while inflation rates for clothing, H&R, and miscellaneous items moved at their respective last month's rates of 2.2 percent, 3.7 percent and 1.9 percent.

• Inflation rate for food alone was slightly lower by 0.2 percentage point to 2.4 percent in October from 2.6 percent in September.

• A negative rate was observed in the price of meat, -0.2 percent in October from 0.1 percent in September. The price of rice moved at a slower rate of 4.4 percent from 5.5 percent as eight regions posted lower rates. The lowest decrease at 13.8 percentage points was noted in Southern Mindanao followed by Central Mindanao at 10.2 percentage points.

• Lower rates were also registered in the prices of corn, 3.8 percent in October from 4.1 percent in September; eggs, 1.0 percent from 1.2 percent; and fruits and vegetables, 0.1 percent from 0.7 percent. Higher rates were however, noted in the prices of cereal preparations, 2.8 percent from 2.6 percent; dairy products, 1.2 percent from 1.1 percent; fish, 2.8 percent from 2.4 percent; and miscellaneous foods, 2.3 percent from 1.8 percent.

   

>By Region, Month-on-Month

The general level of prices in NCR declined by 0.2 percent in October from zero growth in September as prices of FBT items further decreased to -0.9 percent from -0.5 percent. In addition, prices of clothing and services items correspondingly slid to 0.1 percent and 0.2 percent from their respective last month's rates of 0.2 percent and 0.3 percent. Prices of H&R and miscellaneous items remained stable as they posted zero growth during the month from their respective September rates of 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent. On the other hand, prices of FLW items grew by 2.3 percent from 0.3 percent.

On the average, prices in AONCR remained stable as it posted zero growth in October from 0.2 percent in September. The rates in the previous month were retained in clothing and H&R at 0.1 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively while the rate of FBT dropped to -0.3 percent from 0.3 percent last month. The rate of FLW rose to 0.7 percent in October from -0.2 percent in September; services, 0.4 percent from 0.3 percent; and miscellaneous items, 0.2 percent from 0.1 percent. The highest month-on-month rate at 0.6 percent was posted in Central Luzon and Central Visayas while Southern Mindanao and Central Mindanao registered the lowest rate at -1.5 percent.

>By Commodity Group, Month-on-Month

The month-on-month inflation went down by 0.1 percent in October from 0.2 percent in September primarily due to a 0.4 percent decline in the price of FBT during the month. Slowdowns in the prices of clothing and miscellaneous items at 0.1 percent in October from 0.2 percent in September also contributed to the downward movement. Moreover, prices of H&R items also moved down to 0.1 percent from 0.3 percent while the services index retained its last month's rate of 0.3 percent. However, prices of FLW items went up by 1.3 percent in October from -0.1 percent last month.

The adequate and increasing supply of rice in the markets due to the on-going harvest in selected provinces caused the price of rice in the three areas to drop: Philippines, -1.4 percent in October from 2.9 percent in September; NCR, -0.7 percent from 1.2 percent; and AONCR, -1.5 percent from 3.2 percent.

The fine weather in NCR and nearby provinces allowed easy movements of vegetables in the fresh markets. Moreover, the supply of imported fruits in the markets was notably abundant in various markets in NCR. Thus, prices of fruits and vegetables in NCR further decreased to -4.9 percent in October from -0.8 percent in September. Similarly, prices of fruits and vegetables in AONCR dropped by 0.2 percent as lower prices of vegetables and some fruits like papaya and guava were observed in selected regions. The national index still posted a negative rate of -1.4 percent from -3.3 percent.

The decline in the prices of corn in the Philippines and AONCR by 0.9 percent from 0.6 percent was partly due to the good production of corn brought about by favorable weather conditions. However, prices of corn in NCR remained stable as it registered zero growth during the month.

The price of meat in the Philippines and AONCR still posted a negative rate of 0.1 percent and in the NCR at -0.5 percent. This was brought about by the continued abundant supply of pork and chicken along with the continued low demand of meat as consumers shifted to the much cheaper bangus and tilapia.

ÞThe favorable weather conditions that prevailed during the month pushed down prices of fish in NCR. The same trend was noticed in many regions in AONCR.

Higher purchased power adjustment (PPA) and currency exchange rate adjustment (CERA) for electricity in NCR along with the increments in the prices of LPG and kerosene resulted to a 2.3 percent increase in the FLW index in the area. Similarly, the group's index in AONCR accelerated by 0.7 percent as prices of LPG, kerosene and charcoal were up in many regions. Higher electricity rate in some regions also contributed to the upward movement. Thus, the national index for FLW picked up by 1.3 percent.

Price add-ons in medicines, gasoline, diesel and engine oil effected a 0.3 percent increase in the services index for the Philippines, 0.2 percent for NCR and 0.4 percent for AONCR.

Increases in the salaries of carpenter and electrician along with higher rental rates observed in some regions slightly raised the H&R index in the Philippines and AONCR by 0.1 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, prices of H&R items in NCR remained stable as it posted zero growth this month.

The 2^nd survey report from Olongapo City was not received as of November 4, 2002.