FEBRUARY AND JANUARY 2013

The country’s year-on-year headline inflation rate jumped to 3.4 percent in February from 3.0 percent in January. It resulted from the faster annual gain in the heavily-weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages index and the double-digit annual increment in alcoholic beverages and tobacco index. Higher annual increases in the indices furnishing, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house; communication; and recreation and culture were also noted. Inflation a year ago was 2.7percent.

Excluding selected food and energy items, core inflation went up to 3.8 percent in February from 3.6 percent in January.

On the other hand, annual inflation in the National Capital Region (NCR) continued to move at a slower pace. The transport index still posted negative annual rate. Annual increases in the indices of clothing and footwear; housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels; health; and restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services also decelerated during the period.

In Areas Outside NCR (AONCR), annual inflation picked up to 3.7 percent in February from 3.3 percent in January. This was due to higher annual uptick in the index of food and non-alcoholic beverages and the double-digit annual growth still registered in the index of alcoholic beverages and tobacco. Moreover, higher annual gains in the indices of communication and restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services contributed to the uptrend.

Year-on-Year Inflation Rates in the Philippines, All Items January 2008 - February 2013 (2006=100)
Month	Year
	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
January	4.6	7.1	3.9	4.0	4.0	3.0
February	5.1	7.2	3.9	4.7	2.7	3.4
March	5.8	6.7	3.9	4.9	2.6
April	7.3	5.6	4.0	4.7	3.0
May	8.2	4.3	3.9	4.9	2.9
June	9.4	3.2	3.6	5.2	2.8
July	10.2	2.2	3.8	4.9	3.2
August	10.5	1.7	4.1	4.6	3.8
September	10.1	2.3	3.8	4.7	3.6
October	9.7	2.9	3.3	5.2	3.1
November	9.1	3.5	3.7	4.7	2.8
December	7.8	4.4	3.6	4.2	2.9
Average	8.3	4.1	3.9	4.6	3.2

• Prices of consumer items generally increased by 0.3 percent in February. This was due to the price mark-ups registered in alcoholic beverages and tobacco items. Higher prices of some food items such as rice, meat, fish, milk, cheese and eggs and upticks in the prices of gasoline, diesel and some items for personal care and effects were observed in many regions.

  ---

  CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
  (2006=100)

  FEBRUARY 2013

By Region, Year-on-Year

• Annual inflation in NCR eased to 2.3 percent in February from 2.4 percent in January.

• In AONCR, year-on-year inflation went up 3.7 percent in February from 3.3 percent in January as all the regions posted higher annual hikes. The highest annual rate of 7.4 percent remained in Central Visayas while the lowest was still recorded in Ilocos at 1.8 percent.

By Commodity Group, Year-on-Year

• Compared to a year ago level, the index for alcoholic beverages and tobacco at the national level continued to register double-digit growth at 29.0 percent in February from 17.3 percent in January. The annual inflation of the heavily-weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages index likewise escalated to 2.9 percent from 2.3 percent; furnishing, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house index, 5.0 percent from 4.9 percent; communication index, 0.7 percent from 0.5 percent; and recreation and culture index, 2.2 percent from 2.0 percent. The rest of the commodity groups had slower annual changes or retained their previous month’s rate.

  The annual adjustment in the food alone index in the Philippines grew by 3.0 percent in February from 2.3 percent in January.

  From an annual decrease of 3.6 percent last month, the vegetable index advanced by 1.4 percent in February. Higher annual upticks were also noticed in rice and meat indices at 1.9 percent from 1.7 percent; corn index, 5.9 percent from 5.0 percent; fish index, 5.8 percent from 5.2 percent; sugar, jam, honey, chocolate and confectionery index, 3.4 percent from 2.5 percent; and food products not elsewhere classified index, 3.3 percent from 2.7 percent. Movements in the other food groups were slower or negative.

• In NCR, the annual rate in the transport index further declined by 0.3 percent in February from -0.2 percent in January. Moreover, annual growth in clothing and footwear index decelerated to 6.6 percent from 6.7 percent; housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels index, 0.7 percent from 2.6 percent; health index, 3.5 percent from 3.6 percent; and restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services index, 1.1 percent from 1.2 percent. Those for the rest of the commodity groups were higher or remained at their last month’s rate.

  • The annual inflation in the food alone index in NCR grew by 3.1 percent in February from 2.0 percent in January.

  • Except for the indices of corn; milk, cheese and egg; and oils and fats, the annual upticks recorded in all the food groups were higher during the period.

• In AONCR, alcoholic beverages and tobacco index further expanded to 31.2 percent in February from 18.1 percent in January. In addition, the annual gain in food and non-alcoholic beverages index was faster at 2.9 percent from 2.4 percent; communication index, 0.4 percent from 0.3 percent; and restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services index, 3.5 percent from 3.4 percent. Annual adjustments in the rest of the commodity groups were either slower or remained at their last month’s rate.

  • The annual inflation for food alone index in AONCR picked up to 2.9 percent in February from 2.3 percent in January.

  • From an annual decrease of 4.1 percent in January, the vegetables index gained 1.5 percent in February. Annual change in corn index also went up by 6.0 percent from 5.0 percent; meat index, 1.7 percent from 1.5 percent; fish index, 6.0 percent from 5.8 percent; sugar, jam, honey, chocolate and confectionery index, 2.9 percent from 2.2 percent; and food products not elsewhere classified index, 3.0 percent from 2.6 percent.

  • The annual inflation of the rice index eased to 1.8 percent in February from 1.9 percent in January as nine regions posted negative or slower annual rates. The biggest slowdown of 1.0 percentage point was seen in Caraga (3.5% from 4.5%).

  • Improved annual increments were also recorded in the rest of the food groups with the index for oils and fats still recording an annual decline of 5.3 percent from -5.0 percent.

By Region, Month-on-Month

By Commodity Group, Month-on-Month

• Price mark-ups of consumer items in the Philippines eased to 0.3 percent in February from 0.5 percent in January. The index for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels dropped by 0.3 percent from 0.6 percent. Moreover, the uptick in food and non-alcoholic beverages index was slower at 0.1 percent from 0.2 percent; alcoholic beverages and tobacco index, 10.6 percent from 11.9 percent; clothing and footwear index, 0.2 percent from 0.4 percent; furnishing, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house and restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services indices, both at 0.2 percent from 0.3 percent; and health index, 0.2 percent from 0.5 percent. The rest of the commodity groups either had higher price increments or zero growth with the adjustment in the recreation and culture index remaining at 0.2 percent.

  • Abundant supply of in-season fruits like mango, watermelon and pineapple triggered the 1.4 percent decline in the fruit index in the Philippines; -2.1 percent in NCR; and -1.3 percent in AONCR.

  • Ample supply of vegetables in NCR markets coming from the traditional growing areas in Luzon pushed down the group’s index in the area by 6.2 percent. Meanwhile, price increments in vegetables were noted in many regions in AONCR particularly in areas affected by typhoon “Crising”. Hence, the vegetables index in the area increased by 0.2 percent. At the national level, the group’s index fell by 0.8 percent.

  • The meat index in NCR inched up 0.1 percent due to price gains in pork. Likewise, the group’s index in AONCR and in the Philippines grew by 0.2 percent as pork, chicken and beef were priced higher in selected regions as prices of animal feeds went up during the period.

  • Upward price adjustments in milk, cheese and eggs in selected regions effected a 0.1 percent growth in the group’s index of the three areas.

  • With the positive monthly growth in the prices of rice in eight regions including NCR, the index of rice in the Philippines went up by 0.3 percent; NCR, 2.6 percent and AONCR, 0.1 percent. High-priced NFA rice available in NCR markets pushed up its rice index during the month.

  • The bad weather condition brought by typhoon “Crising” in Visayas and Mindanao areas adversely affected the fishermen’s catch and this factor limited the volume of fish supply in the markets. Thus, the fish index in the Philippines rose 0.4 percent; NCR, 1.3 percent; and AONCR, 0.3 percent.

• Lower charges in electricity rates were observed in many regions. Moreover, price rollbacks in LPG were also recorded in some regions. Thus, the index for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels went down in the three areas during the month: Philippines, -0.3 percent; NCR, -0.6 percent; and AONCR, -0.2 percent.

• The 0.2 percent growth in the index for restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services in the Philippines and AONCR resulted from price add-ons on some items for personal care and effects and higher prices of meals eaten outside the home. Meanwhile, the group’s index in NCR had zero growth during the period.

• The index for transport in NCR climbed by 0.4 percent and in AONCR and in the Philippines, 0.3 percent. This was due to the price increments in gasoline and diesel together with air transport fare hikes in many regions.

• The soaring prices of alcoholic beverages and tobacco pushed up the group’s index in the Philippines by 10.6 percent; NCR, 4.0 percent; and AONCR, 11.8 percent. These were however slower than their corresponding last month’s rates of 11.9 percent, 7.1 percent and 12.8 percent.

NOTES

1. The survey reports from the following provinces were not received as of March 5, 2013:

• Lanao del Sur - first and second phase;
• Tawi-tawi - first and second phase;
• Sulu - second phase.

2. CPIs and inflation rates by province and selected city are also available upon request at NSO, Industry and Trade Statistics Department, Economic and Indicators Division (Telephone Numbers: 716-39-35 and 715-33-47).

(Sgd.) CARMELITA N. ERICTA
Administrator