SEPTEMBER AND AUGUST 2012

Year-on-year headline inflation in the Philippines decelerated to 3.6 percent in September from 3.8 percent in August. Slower annual gains were posted in the clothing and footwear index; housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels index; health index; and in the restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services index. Inflation a year ago was 4.7 percent.

Excluding selected food and energy items, core inflation eased to 3.8 percent in September from 4.3 percent in August.

Inflation in the National Capital Region (NCR) settled to 3.5 percent in September from 4.4 percent in August. This was due to improved annual hikes in food and non-alcoholic beverages index; housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels index; and recreation and culture index.

Annual inflation in Areas Outside NCR (AONCR) however inched up to 3.7 percent in September from 3.6 percent in August. Annual upticks were higher in the following indices: food and non-alcoholic beverages; transport; communication; and recreation and culture.

Year-on-Year Inflation Rates in the Philippines, All Items January 2007 - September 2012 (2006=100)
Month	Year
	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
January	3.8	4.6	7.1	3.9	4.0	4.0
February	2.9	5.1	7.2	3.9	4.7	2.7
March	2.6	5.8	6.7	3.9	4.9	2.6
April	2.6	7.3	5.6	4.0	4.7	3.0
May	2.7	8.2	4.3	3.9	4.9	2.9
June	2.6	9.4	3.2	3.6	5.2	2.8
July	2.9	10.2	2.2r	3.8	4.9	3.2
August	2.7	10.5	1.7	4.1	4.6	3.8
September	2.9	10.1	2.3	3.8	4.7	3.6
October	2.9	9.7	2.9r	3.3	5.2
November	3.1	9.1	3.5	3.7	4.7
December	3.7	7.8	4.4	3.6	4.2
Average	2.9	8.3	4.1	3.9	4.6

• Lower charges in electricity rates in many regions primarily pushed down the country’s consumer prices by -0.1 percent in September from 0.8 percent in August. Contributing also to the downtrend were the price decreases in food items such as fish, cooking oil and common species and seasonings seen in many regions together with the price declines in vegetables in NCR.

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  CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
  (2006=100)
  SEPTEMBER 2012

By Region, Year-on-Year

• The annual inflation in NCR eased to 3.5 percent in September from 4.4 percent in August.

• In AONCR, annual inflation went up to 3.7 percent in September from 3.6 percent in August as 13 regions recorded higher annual rates during the month. The biggest gain of 0.9 percentage point was in Cagayan Valley (4.2% from 3.3%). The highest annual rate of 7.3 percent was still observed in Central Visayas while the lowest annual inflation of 1.7 percent remained in Davao region.

By Commodity Group, Year-on-Year

• Slower year-on-year inflation at the national level was posted in clothing and footwear index at 5.0 percent in September from 5.2 percent in August; housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels index, 4.5 percent from 5.6 percent; health index, 3.0 percent from 3.1 percent; and restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services index, 3.2 percent from 3.3 percent. The other commodity groups registered higher annual hikes or retained their last month’s rate.

  The annual adjustment of the food alone index in the Philippines picked up to 3.6 percent in September from 3.3 percent in August.

  The vegetables index had a 9.9 percent annual increase in September from 7.4 percent in August. Moreover, the annual adjustment in rice index climbed 1.2 percent from 1.0 percent; corn index, 4.1 percent from 3.3 percent; sugar, jam, honey, chocolate and confectionery index, 2.5 percent from -0.6 percent; and food products not elsewhere classified index, 2.7 percent from 1.7 percent. On the contrary, annual change in oils and fats index further dropped by -4.9 percent from -4.6 percent. Movements in the other food groups were slower or remained at their last month’s rate.

• In NCR, annual uptick in food and non-alcoholic beverages index decelerated to 4.3 percent in September from 4.9 percent in August; housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels index, 3.0 percent from 5.5 percent; and recreation and culture index, 4.8 percent from 4.9 percent. The rest of the commodity groups either recorded faster annual increases or retained their respective last month’s rate.

  • The annual hike in the food alone index in NCR eased to 4.3 percent in September from 5.0 percent in August.

  • All the food groups either registered slower annual additions or had annual declines except in rice index whose annual rate was higher at 2.3 percent from 1.9 percent; meat index, 2.9 percent from 2.0 percent; and food products not elsewhere classified index, 1.9 percent from 0.9 percent.

• In AONCR, higher annual gains were seen in four commodity groups namely food and non-alcoholic beverages; transport; communication; and recreation and culture. On the other hand, annual add-ons in the rest of the commodity groups either decelerated or remained at their previous month’s rate.

  • The annual growth in the food alone index in AONCR escalated to 3.4 percent in September 2.9 percent in August.

  • With 10 regions recording higher annual hikes in the rice index, the group’s index in AONCR rose 1.1 percent in September from 0.9 percent in August. The biggest jump of 1.1 percentage points was noted in Bicol region (0.8% from -0.3%).

  • A higher annual mark-up was also observed in the corn index at 4.1 percent in September from 3.3 percent in August; vegetables index, 8.2 percent from 3.9 percent; sugar, jam, honey, chocolate and confectionery index, 3.1 percent from -0.1 percent; and food products not elsewhere classified index, 2.9 percent from 1.9 percent. The rest of the food groups had slower annual add-ons or had annual declines.

By Region, Month-on-Month

By Commodity Group, Month-on-Month

• At the national level, consumer prices generally decreased by -0.1 percent in September from 0.8 percent in August. This was effected by the -1.1 percent drop in the index for housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels. Improved monthly increases were also posted in four commodity groups. On the other hand, adjustment in restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services inched up 0.1 percent from zero percent. That for communication, recreation and culture and education indices was zero while health and transport indices retained their respective last month’s figure of 0.1 percent and 0.6 percent.

  • The vegetables index in NCR dropped by -3.1 percent in September from a double-digit growth of 21.0 percent in August. The downward price trend in vegetables can be attributed to their sufficient supplies in the markets brought about by the improved favorable weather conditions which boosted production of vegetables during the month. On the contrary, prices of vegetables in many regions in AONCR went up during the month. Thus, the group’s index in the area soared to 5.3 percent from 3.7 percent. These different price movements resulted to a 3.7 percent growth in the national index, slower than the 6.5 percent gain last month.

  • The increments in the prices of banana and papaya and some fruits that were out of season in selected regions raised the fruits index in the Philippines by 1.0 percent; NCR, 2.6 percent; and AONCR, 0.5 percent.

  • With nine regions having positive growths in the rice index, the AONCR’s aggregate index for rice registered a 0.1 percent increase during the month from 0.4 percent in August. Prices of rice in NCR likewise picked up 0.8 percent from 1.3 percent. Hence, the national index posted a 0.2 percent gain from 0.5 percent last month.

  • Uptick in milk, cheese and egg index in the three areas was 0.1 percent as prices of milk and milk products in selected regions generally went up during the month.

  • Price movements in sugar decelerated in most of the regions. Hence, growth in the indices for sugar, jam, honey, chocolate and confectionery in the Philippines and AONCR was pegged at 0.2 percent from 1.4 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively and in NCR, 0.1 percent from 2.2 percent.

  • Supply of aquaculture fish such as milkfish and tilapia and selected marine fish species like anchovy, round scad and other sea foods were sufficient during the month thereby pushing down their prices in the markets. The fish index in the Philippines dropped by -0.4 percent from 1.5 percent; NCR, -1.3 percent from 2.4 percent; and AONCR, -0.3 percent from 1.4 percent.

  • The continuous price reductions in cooking oil primarily effected a -0.7 percent decline in the oils and fats index in the Philippines; -0.4 percent in NCR; and -0.8 percent in AONCR.

• With lower charges for electricity rates in many regions, the index for housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels in the Philippines dropped by -1.1 percent in September from 0.8 percent in August; NCR, -2.6 percent from 1.3 percent; and AONCR, -0.5 percent from 0.6 percent.

• The general upward adjustments in the prices of gasoline and diesel nationwide pushed up the transport index at the national level by 0.6 percent; NCR, 0.8 percent; and AONCR, 0.5 percent.

• The index of furnishing, household equipment and routine maintenance of house in the Philippines and AONCR picked up by 0.2 percent and NCR, 0.8 percent as prices of selected kitchen utensils and articles of cleaning generally increased during the month.

NOTE:

1. The second phase survey report from Zamboanga Sibugay was not received as of October 4, 2012.

2. CPIs and inflation rates by province and selected city are also available upon request at NSO, Industry and Trade Statistics Department, Economic Indices and Indicators Division (Telephone Numbers: 716-39-35 and 715-33-47).

(Sgd.) CARMELITA N. ERICTA
Administrator