SEPTEMBER AND AUGUST 2013

The Philippines’ annual headline inflation accelerated to 2.7 percent in September from 2.1 percent in August. A higher annual increment in the heavily-weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages index primarily brought about the uptrend. Faster annual increases in the indices of alcoholic beverages and tobacco; housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels; and health were also noticed during the month. Inflation a year ago was 3.7 percent.

Excluding selected food and energy items, core annual inflation moved up 2.3 percent in September from 1.9 percent in August.

The annual inflation in the National Capital Region (NCR) likewise jumped to 1.1 percent in September from a 0.1 percent decline in August. This was due to higher annual mark-ups in the indices of food and non-alcoholic beverages; housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels; and restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services.

In Areas Outside NCR, annual inflation went up 3.1 percent in September from 2.7 percent in August. This was mainly effected by a higher annual growth posted in food and non-alcoholic beverages index. Moreover, annual increments were higher in the indices of alcoholic beverages and tobacco; housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels; and health.

Year-on-Year Inflation Rates in the Philippines, All Items January 2008 - September 2013 (2006=100)
Month	Year
	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
January	4.6	7.1	3.9	4.0	4.0	3.1
February	5.1	7.2	3.9	4.7	2.7	3.4
March	5.9	6.7	3.9	4.9	2.6	3.2
April	7.3	5.6	4.0	4.7	3.0	2.6
May	8.2	4.3	3.9	4.9	3.0	2.6
June	9.4	3.2	3.6	5.2	2.9	2.7
July	10.2	2.2	3.7	4.9	3.2	2.5
August	10.5	1.7	4.1	4.6	3.8	2.1
September	10.1	2.3	3.8	4.7	3.7	2.7
October	9.7	2.9	3.3	5.2	3.2
November	9.1	3.5	3.7	4.7	2.8
December	7.8	4.4	3.6	4.2	3.0
Average	8.3	4.2	3.8	4.6	3.2

• Prices of consumer items at the national level shoot up by 0.6 percent in September from 0.2 percent in August. It resulted from the continued price hikes in rice along with the price upticks in corn, fruits and vegetables. Contributing also to the uptrend were the general upward adjustments in electricity rates and price gains in petroleum products and some health services.

  ---

  CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
  (2006=100)

  SEPTEMBER 2013

By Region, Year-on-Year

• The year-on-year growth in the prices of consumer items in NCR rose 1.1 percent in September from a drop of 0.1 percent in August.

• Similarly, annual inflation in AONCR picked up 3.1 percent in September from 2.7 percent in August as nine regions recorded higher annual rates during the month. The biggest gain of 1.1 percentage points were posted in Bicol (3.4% from 2.3%) and Eastern Visayas (4.8% from 3.7%). The highest annual rate of 5.1 percent was still registered in Northern Mindanao while the lowest annual inflation of 1.9 percent was observed in Ilocos and Central Luzon.

By Commodity Group, Year-on-Year

• Year-on-year inflation in the Philippines was higher in four commodity groups namely: food and non-alcoholic beverages index (2.5% from 1.8%); alcoholic beverages and tobacco index (31.2% from 31.0%); housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels index (1.1% from -0.3%); and health index (2.7% from 2.6%). The rest of the commodity groups have either slower annual increments or retained their previous month’s annual rate.

  The annual growth of the food alone index at the national level advanced to 2.5 percent in September from 1.8 percent in August.

  The annual change in rice index jumped to 7.1 percent in September from 3.9 percent in August; corn index, 3.9 percent from 3.6 percent; fish index, 1.5 percent from 1.4 percent; and food products not elsewhere classified index, 3.3 percent from 2.8 percent.

  On the other hand, the annual adjustment in the fruits index slowed to 3.8 percent from 4.3 percent while those for the other food groups were either negative or remained at their previous month’s rate.

• In NCR, the food and non-alcoholic beverages index went up 1.0 percent in September from -0.1 percent in August; housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels index, 0.3 percent from -2.8 percent; and restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services index, 0.5 percent from 0.4 percent. The rest of the commodity groups either recorded slower annual increases or retained their respective last month’s rate with the transport index posting an annual decrease of 0.2 percent.

  • The food alone index in NCR climbed 1.0 percent in September from a 0.3 percent decline in August.

  • A higher annual gain was noted in the indices of rice at 7.3 percent in September from 5.1 percent in August; corn, 4.3 percent from 2.5 percent; fish, 0.7 percent from -0.1 percent; milk, cheese and egg, 1.2 percent from 1.1 percent; and food products not elsewhere classified, 5.6 percent from 4.9 percent.

  • The indices of meat and fruits however correspondingly registered a slower annual increase of 0.2 percent and 1.7 percent from 0.9 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively. The other food groups have negative annual rates.

• In AONCR, a faster annual increment was seen in food and non-alcoholic beverages index at 2.8 percent in September from 2.2 percent in August; alcoholic beverages and tobacco index, 33.8 percent from 33.6 percent; and housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels index, 1.5 percent from 0.8 percent; and health index, 2.6 percent from 2.5 percent. Slowdowns were however noticed in furnishing, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house index at 2.5 percent from 2.6 percent; transport index, 0.8 percent from 1.1 percent; and recreation and culture index, 2.6 percent from 2.7 percent. The other commodity groups retained their corresponding August rate. The index for communication had a zero annual growth from 0.1 percent in the previous month.

  • The annual inflation of the food alone index in AONCR picked up 2.8 percent in September from 2.2 percent in August.

  • A 7.1 percent annual mark-up was recorded in the rice index in September from 3.8 percent in August as all the regions have higher annual add-ons. The biggest acceleration of 8.0 percentage points was in Bicol (13.9% from 5.9%).

  • The annual change in corn index likewise moved upward at 3.9 percent in September from 3.6 percent in August; meat index, 2.5 percent from 2.3 percent; fish index, 1.7 percent from 1.6 percent; and food products not elsewhere classified index, 2.8 percent from 2.4 percent.

  • The indices of the other food groups had either negative annual change or moved at their last month’s rate.

By Region, Month-on-Month

By Commodity Group, Month-on-Month

• Mark-ups in the prices of consumer items in the country was at 0.6 percent in September from 0.2 percent in August. It resulted primarily from the higher monthly gain in the food and non-alcoholic beverages index at 1.0 percent in September from 0.6 percent in August; alcoholic beverages and tobacco and health indices, 0.2 percent from 0.1 percent; housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels index, 0.3 percent from -0.2 percent; health index, 0.2 percent from 0.1 percent; and transport index, 0.2 percent from zero growth. Meanwhile, a 0.1 percent decrease in the communication index was recorded in September from zero growth in August. Monthly adjustments for the other commodity groups were either slower or remained at their August rates. A zero growth was noticed in the indices of recreation and education during the month.

  • With 13 regions having higher growths in the rice index, the AONCR’s aggregate index for rice jumped by 3.3 percent from 1.9 percent in August. Among the regions in AONCR, Bicol had the highest rate at 8.1 percent. A faster monthly increment was also posted in the rice index in NCR at 2.9 percent from 2.7 percent. At the national level, the group’s index rose 3.2 percent from 2.0 percent.

  • Retail prices of vegetables particularly those coming from Northern Luzon went up when typhoon “Maring” hit Luzon. The armed conflict in Zamboanga also raised prices of vegetables in the region during the month. Thus, the vegetables index in the Philippines and AONCR correspondingly picked up 2.5 percent and 1.3 percent from -0.6 percent and in NCR, 8.9 percent from -0.5 percent. Sayote, baguio beans, pechay, ampalaya, cabbage, mustasa, kangkong and stringbeans were generally priced higher during the month.

  • Prices of fruits exhibited mixed price movements among the regions in AONCR. Hence, the group’s index in the area retained its last month’s rate of 0.5 percent. However, a slower monthly growth was observed in NCR with 0.2 percent from 1.2 percent as higher prices of avocado, mango, grapes, papaya and oranges were offset by lower prices of lanzones, apple and saba banana. The index for fruit in the Philippines also slowed to 0.5 percent from 0.6 percent.

  • Lower production of corn during the rainy season limited its supplies in the markets in many regions thereby pushing up their prices during the month. Thus, the corn index for the Philippines and AONCR gained 0.4 percent from -0.7 percent and in NCR, 1.8 percent from 1.3 percent.

  • Upward adjustment in milk, cheese and egg index in the Philippines and AONCR was at 0.1 percent and in NCR, 0.2 percent as prices of eggs, milk and milk products generally went up during the month.

  • Lower price quotations of both marine and aquaculture fish species in NCR markets due to sufficient supplies during the month pushed down the fish index in the area by 0.5 percent from 1.8 percent. The crisis in Zamboanga along with the oil spill in Cebu lowered the demand for fish in these areas. These factors contributed to the 0.1 percent reduction in the fish index in AONCR and -0.2 percent in the Philippines.

• Increased prices of LPG primarily effected the 0.3 percent growth in the indices for housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels in the Philippines and AONCR and 0.5 percent in NCR.

• On the average, prices of gasoline and diesel went up nationwide. Hence, the transport index in the Philippines and AONCR registered growths of 0.2 percent and in NCR, 0.4 percent.

• The index of restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services in the three areas inched up 0.1 percent during the month. This was due to the price upticks in selected items for personal care and effects.

NOTES:

CPIs and inflation rates by province and selected city are also available upon request at NSO, Industry and Trade Statistics Department, Economic and Indicators Division (Telephone Numbers: 716-39-35 and 715-33-47).

(Sgd.) CARMELITA N. ERICTA
Administrator