HIGHLIGHTS

The updated January-March 2020 production on palay and corn based on standing crop as of 01 February 2020 may decline from both January-March 2020 forecast and January-March 2019 final estimates.

PALAY

• The probable palay production for January-March 2020 based on standing crop as of 01 February 2020 (updated) may reach 4.00 million metric tons, 6.7 percent lower than the initial estimate as of 01 January 2020 of 4.28 million metric tons. The updated Jan-Mar 2020 estimated palay production indicates a possible downtrend of 9.5 percent in the period January-March 2020, from the previous year’s output of 4.42 million metric tons (Figure 1). Harvest area may contract by 3.7 percent from 1,153.19 thousand hectares in 2019. Yield per hectare may decline to 3.60 metric tons from the 3.83 metric tons level in the previous year.

• About 25.8 percent of the updated standing crop of 1,110.70 thousand hectares have been harvested.
• About 40.8 percent of 1,308.58 thousand hectares of standing crop were still at vegetative stage, 37.8 percent at reproductive stage, and 21.5 percent at maturing stage (Figure 2).
• As for the farmer’s planting intentions for January-March 2020, 484.65 thousand hectares or 48.2 percent of the perceived area have been actually planted.

CORN

• Corn production for January-March 2020, based on standing crop as of 01 February 2020, may reach 2.39. million metric tons, lower by 1.5 percent than the estimated corn production as of 01 January 2020 of 2.43 million metric tons. The updated estimate of corn production for January-March 2020 is lower  by 1.3 percent from the previous year’s level of 2.43 million metric tons (Figure 3). Harvest area may reduce to 700.20 thousand hectares from 706.26 thousand hectares in 2019. Yield per  hectare may slightly decrease to 3.42 metric tons from the 3.43 metric tons level in the previous year.

• Around 263.16 thousand hectares or 37.6 percent of the updated standing crop have been harvested.
• Of the 623.84 thousand hectares of standing crop, 23.5 percent were at vegetative stage, 45.0 percent at reproductive stage, and 31.5 percent at maturing stage (Figure 4).
• Around 194.29 thousand hectares or 47.6 percent of the planting intentions for January-March 2020 crop have been realized.

ROSALINDA P. BAUTISTA
Assistant Secretary
Deputy National Statistician Sectoral Statistics Office