HIGHLIGHTS

As of 01 November 2017, the updated fourth quarter 2017 production forecasts on palay and corn based on standing crop may decline from the October 2017 Round forecasts. These may be attributed to the effects of continuous rains during the reproductive and maturing stages of the crop and occurrence of typhoons during the cropping period.

PALAY

• Palay production for October-December 2017 may fall to 7.40 million MT, 0.60 percent lower than the October 2017 round forecast of 7.45 million MT but 5.60 percent higher than the previous year’s output of 7.01 million MT (Figure 1). Harvest area may decline by 0.10 percent from the 1,863.28 thousand hectares level. Likewise, yield per hectare may decline to 3.97 MT from 3.99 MT.

• The probable decrement in palay production may be attributed to:
  • effects of continuous rains during reproductive and maturing stages of the crop which resulted to lodging of crop in Mindoro Occidental, Isabela, Kalinga, Rizal, Aurora, and Quirino;
  • damaged brought by typhoon Odette and aggravated monsoon rains in Cagayan;
  • effects of typhoon Maring in Laguna and Quezon, typhoon Paolo in Zamboanga Norte, and typhoon Ramil in Mindoro Oriental;
  • floodings in Negros Occidental, and Sultan Kudarat;
  • rice bug and stem borer infestations in Iloilo and Sultan Kudarat; and
  • occurrence of bacterial blight, blast and dead heart diseases in Iloilo.
• About 1,196.23 thousand hectares or 64.2 percent of the updated standing crop have been harvested. As to the planting intentions of farmers for the January-March 2018 crop, around 345.17 thousand hectares or 29.9 percent of these have been actually planted.
• Of the 960.21 thousand hectares standing palay crop, 37.1 percent were at vegetative stage; 18.5 percent, at reproductive stage and 44.4 percent, at maturing stage (Figure 2).

CORN

• Corn production for October-December 2017 may decrease to 1.62 million MT, 0.8 percent lower than the earlier forecast of 1.63 million MT and may be 6.2 percent below than previous year’s level of 1.73 million MT (Figure 3). Harvest area may remain at 568.48 thousand hectares. Yield may lessen to 2.85 MT per hectare from 2.88 MT level.

• The possible decrement in corn output may be attributed to:
  • flash flood in Isabela, Zamboanga City and South Cotabato;

  • effects of typhoon Paolo in Zamboanga Norte;

  • continuous rain in Quirino, Cebu, Batangas, Kalinga, and Bohol; and

  • rat infestations in Bukidnon, Sarangani and South Cotabato.

• About 211.31 thousand hectares or 37.2 percent of the updated standing crop have been harvested. Around 164.95 thousand hectares or 23.2 percent of the planting intentions of the farmers for the October-December 2017 have been realized.
• Of the updated 522.11 thousand hectares of standing corn crop, about 35.3 percent were at vegetative stage; 28.8 percent, at reproductive stage and 36.0 percent, at maturing stage (Figure 4).

Technical Notes

Production refers to the quantity produced and actually harvested for a particular crop during the reference period. For palay and corn, harvest area refers to the actual area harvested/to be harvested during the reference quarter.

Updates on production and harvest area forecasts of palay and corn are generated from the Monthly Palay and Corn Situation Reporting System (MPCSRS). It is a monitoring activity conducted monthly in-between Palay and Corn Production Survey (PCPS) rounds. Monitoring are conducted in February, March, May, June, August, September and November. MPCSRS updates the quarterly forecasts on production and area for the current quarter based on the PCPS results of the previous survey round.

The data generated from MPCSRS are as follows:

1. Updates on current quarter’s production and area forecasts based on the standing crop with indications on crop situation; and

2. Updates on current quarter’s forecast on planting intentions based on actual plantings.

ROMEO S. RECIDE
Assistant Secretary
Deputy National Statistician Sectoral Statistics Office