HIGHLIGHTS

As of June 1, 2017, the updated second quarter 2017 production forecasts on palay and corn based on standing crop may be higher than the April 2017 Round forecasts.

The expected increase in palay production may be due to the perceived improvement of yield to be brought about by distribution of seeds and fertilizer from the Department of Agriculture (DA), local government units and the UN-Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), use of high yielding varieties (HYVs) and sufficient water supply during the vegetative and reproductive stages of the crop. For corn, the increase in yield which may contribute to output increment could be due to sufficient rainfall during vegetative and reproductive stages of corn, usage of hybrid seeds, and lesser incidence of pests and diseases. There were more plantings in some areas due to renovation and construction of irrigation canals.

PALAY

• Palay production for April-June 2017 may slightly  increase  to  4.104  million  MT, 0.23 percent above the April 2017 round forecast of 4.095 million MT and 11.1 percent higher than the previous year’s output of 3.70 million MT (Figure 1). Harvest area may increase by 0.02 percent from 0.94 million hectares level. Likewise, yield per hectare may improve to 4.39 MT from 4.38 MT.

• The probable increment in palay production may be attributed to:
  • Higher yield to be brought about by extensive program on subsidized seed by DA and free urea fertilizer from the UN- FAO in Nueva Ecija, usage of HYVs distributed through the High Yielding Technology Adoption (HYTA) program of DA in Kalinga and, distribution of good seeds and fertilizer from the Office of Provincial Agriculturist (OPA) in Bulacan and Davao del Sur; and
  • Sufficient water supply in irrigated and rainfed farms during the growth and reproductive stages of the crop in Cagayan, Zambales, Bohol and Surigao Norte.
• About 815.91 thousand hectares of the updated standing crop have been harvested. As to the planting intentions of farmers for the July-September 2017 crop, around 430.43 thousand hectares or 55.7 percent of these have been actually planted.
• Of the 549.83 thousand hectares standing palay crop, 57.5 percent were at vegetative stage; 20.8 percent, at reproductive stage and 21.7 percent, at maturing stage (Figure 2).

CORN

• Corn production for April-June 2017 may increase to 1.288 million MT, 0.2 percent higher than the earlier  forecast  of 1.285 million MT and may be 42.7 percent higher  than  previous  year’s  level  of 0.90 million MT (Figure 3). However, harvest area may slightly decrease to 383.68 thousand hectares from 393.64 thousand hectares. Yield may improve to 3.36 MT per hectare from 3.26 MT per hectare.

• The probable increase in corn yield may be the result of sufficient rainfall during the growth and reproductive stages of the crop in Sultan Kudarat, Bukidnon, Negros Occidental, Ilocos Norte, Kalinga and Quezon.
• The usage of hybrid seeds in Mindoro Occidental and lesser incidence of pests and diseases in Sultan Kudarat and Mindoro Occidental may contribute to higher output.
• In Nueva Ecija, some farmers opted to plant corn due to the renovation and construction of irrigation canals which may bring production to increase.
• About 300.05 thousand hectares of the updated standing crop have been harvested. Around 647.82 thousand hectares or 69.2 percent of the planting intentions for the July-September 2017 have been realized.
• Of the updated 731.44 thousand hectares of standing corn crop, about 64.9 percent were at vegetative stage; 24.9 percent, at reproductive stage and 10.2 percent, at maturing stage (Figure 4).

Technical Notes

Production refers to the quantity produced and actually harvested for a particular crop during the reference period. For palay and corn, harvest area refers to the actual area harvested/to be harvested during the reference quarter.

Updates on production and harvest area forecasts of palay and corn are generated from the Monthly Palay and Corn Situation Reporting System (MPCSRS). It is a monitoring activity conducted monthly in-between Palay and Corn Production Survey (PCPS) rounds. Monitorings are conducted in February, March, May, June, August, September and November. MPCSRS updates the quarterly forecasts on production and area for the current quarter based on the PCPS results of the previous survey round.

The data generated from MPCSRS are as follows:

1. Updates on current quarter’s production and area forecasts based on the standing crop with indications on crop situation; and

2. Updates on current quarter’s forecast on planting intentions based on actual plantings.