HIGHLIGHTS

The updated first quarter 2017 production forecasts on palay and corn based on standing crop as of March 1, 2017, may be lower than the January 2017 Round forecasts.

The expected decline in palay and corn production may be due to the contraction of some harvest areas and reduction of yield brought about by the incidence of pests, occurrence of continuous and heavy rainfall during the vegetative and reproductive stages of the crops, the effects of strong winds early this year, adverse effects of typhoon “Nina” in December 2016 and tropical depression “Auring” in January 2017 in some provinces.

PALAY

• Palay production for January-March 2017 may reach 4.44 million MT, 2.1 percent below the January 2017 round forecast of 4.53 million MT but 12.8 percent higher than the previous year’s output of 3.93 million MT (Figure 1). Harvest area may contract from 1.16 million hectares to 1.15 million hectares, or by 0.7 percent. Likewise, yield per hectare may decrease to 3.86 MT from 3.92 MT.

• The probable decrease in palay production may be attributed to lower yield as a result of infestation of rats, rice black bug, plant hoppers and stemborer in Iloilo, Sultan Kudarat, South Cotabato, Leyte, Cavite, Negros Oriental, Guimaras, Misamis Occidental and Sarangani.
• The continuous and heavy rainfall and strong winds that were experienced during the vegetative and reproductive stages of the crop in Capiz, South Cotabato, Leyte, Compostela Valley, Aurora, Aklan, Surigao Norte, and Negros Oriental may cause production of these provinces to go down.
• Probable decreases in area and yield may be due to floods in Davao, North Cotabato, Negros Occidental, Misamis Occidental, and Bukidnon; the adverse effects of typhoon “Nina” last December 2016 in Catanduanes and Quezon; and heavy rains caused by tropical depression “Auring” early January this year in Bohol, Surigao Norte, Cebu and Agusan Sur.
• About 566.27 thousand hectares of the updated standing crop have been harvested. As to the planting intentions of farmers for the April-June 2017 crop, almost 855.79 thousand hectares or 93.1 percent of these have been actually planted.
• Of the 1,438.40 thousand hectares standing palay crop, 19.8 percent were at vegetative stage; 47.0 percent, at reproductive stage and 33.2 percent, at maturing stage (Figure 2).

CORN

• Corn production for January-March 2017 may decrease to 2.38 million MT, 0.8 percent lower than the earlier forecast of 2.40 million MT. However, it may be 24.0 percent higher than previous year’s level of 1.92 million MT (Figure 3). Harvest area may contract to 698.5 thousand hectares from 700.7 thousand hectares. Yield may decrease to 3.40 MT per hectare from 3.42 MT per hectare.

• Damaged corn areas caused by flashfloods in North Cotabato, Cagayan, Davao, Bukidnon, Misamis Oriental and Misamis Occidental may bring down corn production in these provinces.
• Reports of rat infestations in South Cotabato, Sarangani, Bohol and Sultan Kudarat and crop damage brought about by green and brown plant hoppers in Sultan Kudarat may cause yield reduction.
• Heavy and frequent rainfall in Leyte, Compostela Valley, Capiz, Quezon Bohol, Cebu and Agusan Sur may also contribute to decrease in output.
• About 371.94 thousand hectares of the updated standing crop have been harvested. Around 289.74 thousand hectare or 73.9 percent of the planting intentions for the April-June 2017 harvests have been materialized.
• Of the updated 616.28 thousand hectares of standing corn crop, about 16.8 percent were at vegetative stage; 34.9 percent, at reproductive stage and 48.3 percent, at maturing stage (Figure 4).

Technical Notes

Production refers to the quantity produced and actually harvested for a particular crop during the reference period. For palay and corn, harvest area refers to the actual area harvested/to be harvested during the reference quarter.

Updates on production and harvest area forecasts of palay and corn are generated from the Monthly Palay and Corn Situation Reporting System (MPCSRS). It is a monitoring activity conducted monthly in-between Palay and Corn Production Survey (PCPS) rounds. Monitorings are conducted in February, March, May, June, August, September and November. MPCSRS updates the quarterly forecasts on production and area for the current quarter based on the PCPS results of the previous survey round.

The data generated from MPCSRS are as follows:

1. Updates on current quarter’s production and area forecasts based on the standing crop with indications on crop situation; and

2. Updates on current quarter’s forecast on planting intentions based on actual plantings.