HIGHLIGHTS

As of September 1, 2016, the updated third quarter 2016 production forecast on palay and corn based on standing crop may be lower than the July 2016 Round forecast.

The expected reduction in palay production could be attributed to the contraction of harvest area and reduction of yield triggered by the negative effects of Habagat and tropical storm Carina, and insufficient water supply and incidence of pests and diseases in some provinces. The probable decrease in corn could be due to contraction in harvest areas caused by dry spell and tropical storm Carina and drop in yield as a result of dry spell and infestation of pests.

PALAY

• Palay production for July-September 2016 may be down by 500 MT from the July 2016 round forecast of 2.96 million MT but 16.2 percent higher than the last year’s output of 2.55 million MT (Figure 1). Harvest area may contract by 114 hectares from 751.37 thousand hectares, while, overall yield may stabilize at 3.95 MT per hectare.

• Possible reduction in palay production may be attributed to the damaged areas in Pampanga and Pangasinan due to Habagat in August 2016 and tropical storm Carina in Cagayan province.
• Infestation of rat and black bugs in Zamboanga Sibugay, brown plant hopper in Aurora and occurrence of bacterial leaf blight, rice blast and weeds in Iloilo may affect palay production.
• Insufficient water supply during the vegetative and reproductive stages of crop was felt in Batangas, Quezon, Aklan, Capiz and Guimaras which may result to lower output of these provinces.
• About 214 thousand hectares of the updated standing crop have been harvested. Almost 1,537 thousand hectares or 80.7 percent of the planting intentions for the October-December 2016 crop have been realized.
• Of the 2,075 thousand hectares standing palay crop, 25.6 percent were at vegetative stage; 57.3 percent, at reproductive stage and 17.1 percent, at maturing stage (Figure 2).

CORN

• Corn production for July-September 2016 may shrink to 2.66 million MT, 1.3 percent lower than the earlier forecast of 2.70 million MT but 10.6 percent higher than last year’s level of 2.41 million MT (Figure 3). Harvest area may contract to 973.4 thousand hectares from 974.4 thousand hectares. Yield may fall to 2.73 MT per hectare from 2.77 MT per hectare.

• The combined effects of dry spell/drought and tropical storm resulting to damaged areas may bring down corn production in Isabela and Cagayan.
• Infestations of locusts, corn borers and rats in Cebu, Negros Oriental and South Cotabato, respectively, may cause the reduction in yield.
• 4. Dry spell were experienced in Kalinga and Quezon which may also result to the decrease in output.
• About 435.5 thousand hectares of the updated standing crop have been harvested. Around 457.8 thousand hectare or 70.6 percent of the planting intentions for the October- December 2016 harvests have been materialized.
• Of the updated 995.6 thousand hectares of standing corn crop, about 20.7 percent were at vegetative stage; 32.6 percent, at reproductive stage and 46.7 percent, at maturing stage (Figure 4).

Technical Notes

Production refers to the quantity produced and actually harvested for a particular crop during the reference period. For palay and corn, harvest area refers to the actual area harvested/to be harvested during the reference quarter.

Updates on production and harvest area forecasts of palay and corn are generated from the Monthly Palay and Corn Situation Reporting System (MPCSRS). It is a monitoring activity conducted monthly in-between Palay and Corn Production Survey (PCPS) rounds. Monitorings are conducted in February, March, May, June, August, September and November. MPCSRS updates the quarterly forecasts on production and area for the current quarter based on the PCPS results of the previous survey round.

The data generated from MPCSRS are as follows:

1. Updates on current quarter’s production and area forecasts based on the standing crop with indications on crop situation; and

2. Updates on current quarter’s forecast on planting intentions based on actual plantings.