· The national year-on-year headline inflation rate further slowed down to 9.9 percent in November from 11.2 percent in October. The continued deceleration in the annual rates of the heavily weighted food, beverages and tobacco (FBT) index together with those of the fuel, light and water (FLW) and services resulted to the downtrend. Inflation a year ago was 3.2 percent.

· The annual inflation in the National Capital Region (NCR) likewise continued to move at a slower pace of 6.8 percent in November from 8.0 percent in October due to the slower annual price increases in FBT, housing and repairs (H&R) and services index.

· The slowdown in the annual price hikes of FBT, FLW and services items eased the year-on-year inflation in Areas Outside the National Capital Region (AONCR) by 1.4 percentage points to 11.2 percent in November from 12.6 percent in October.

• Excluding selected food and energy items, core inflation further picked up to 7.9 percent in November from 7.8 percent in October.

§ Compared to October, the country’s consumer prices posted a negative rate in November as it fell by -0.6 percent. This was effected by the downward price adjustments in rice and vegetables and the series of price rollbacks in petroleum products such as LPG, kerosene, gasoline and diesel.

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
(2000=100)
NOVEMBER 2008

By Region, Year-on-Year

§ The annual inflation rate in NCR decelerated by 1.2 percentage points to 6.8 percent in November from 8.0 percent in October.

§ The same trend was also observed in AONCR. The annual inflation rate in the area also slid to 11.2 percent in November from 12.6 percent in October. All the regions registered slower annual inflation rates with Zamboanga Peninsula recording the biggest decrease of 3.9 percentage points (13.2% from 17.1%). The lowest annual rate of 9.2 percent was posted in MIMAROPA while the highest was still noted in Eastern Visayas at 16.5 percent.

By Commodity Group, Year-on-Year

§ The year-on-year inflation in the FBT index at the national level moved at a slower rate of 13.8 percent in November from 15.0 percent in October. The same trend was observed in the FLW and services index, 7.5 percent from 10.7 percent and 10.2 percent In October, respectively. On the other hand, annual inflation in the miscellaneous items index was higher at 3.8 percent from 3.7 percent while that for clothing and H&R index remained at their respective last month’s rates of 4.9 percent and 5.3 percent.

§ On an annual basis, inflation rate for food alone continued a downward trend as it settled at 14.5 percent in November from 15.6 percent in October.

§ The annual price increase in rice dipped to 30.0 percent in November from 32.4 percent in October; cereal preparations, 19.3 percent from 20.3 percent; dairy products, 12.9 percent from 13.4 percent; fish, 9.6 percent from 10.1 percent; fruits and vegetables, 11.7 percent from 14.1 percent; meat, 9.1 percent from 10.1 percent; and miscellaneous foods, 8.6 percent from 9.1 percent. The annual rates of price additions in corn and eggs remained at their October rates of 26.3 percent and 5.5 percent, respectively.

§ In NCR, the annual inflation rate for FBT index was slower at 9.3 percent in November from 10.1 percent in October; H&R, 3.3 percent from 3.4 percent; and services, 5.6 percent from 10.0 percent. On the contrary, those for FLW and miscellaneous items index were higher at 10.5 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively from their corresponding last month’s figures of 10.0 percent and 2.5 percent. The clothing index retained its previous month’s inflation rate of 5.6 percent.

§ Food alone in NCR posted a single digit inflation rate of 9.5 percent in November from 10.4 percent in October.

§ The eggs index still recorded a negative annual rate of -1.9 percent in November from -3.2 percent in October. In addition, the annual price hike in rice slipped to 27.4 percent from 30.3 percent; corn, 2.4 percent from 3.7 percent; cereal preparations, 19.3 percent from 20.3 percent; dairy products, 11.9 percent from 12.1 percent; fruits and vegetables, 7.2 percent from 8.9 percent; meat, 5.5 percent from 6.6 percent; and miscellaneous foods, 6.1 percent from 6.4 percent. Meanwhile, the annual inflation for fish was higher at 5.6 percent from 4.8 percent.

§ In AONCR, annual inflation rate for FBT index further decelerated to 15.2 percent in November from 16.5 percent in October; FLW, 5.9 percent from 11.2 percent; and services, 8.6 percent from 10.4 percent. The rate for miscellaneous items index was however higher at 4.2 percent from 4.0 percent while clothing and H&R index moved at their last month’s rates of 4.8 percent and 6.7 percent, respectively.

§ Annual inflation for food alone in AONCR continued to move at slower rate of 16.0 percent in November from 17.3 percent in October as all the food groups recorded slower annual price increases except for the corn index whose inflation remained at 26.7 percent.

§ Improved annual price increments in rice in twelve regions resulted to a lower inflation rate in the rice index in AONCR at 30.3 percent in November from 32.8 percent in October. MIMAROPA recorded the biggest decrease of 9.5 percentage points (15.2% from 24.7%).

§ Annual price gain in cereal preparations index also eased to 19.4 percent in November from 20.2 percent in October; dairy products, 13.3 percent from 13.9 percent; eggs, 7.9 percent from 8.4 percent; fish, 10.4 percent from 11.2 percent; fruits and vegetables, 13.1 percent from 15.8 percent; meat, 10.8 percent from 11.6 percent; and miscellaneous foods, 9.7 percent from 10.3 percent.

By Region, Month-on-Month

§ Consumer prices in NCR continued to show a downward trend for three consecutive months as its rate further dropped to -0.7 percent in November from -0.3 percent in October. This was due to the price reductions in FBT and services items at -0.2 percent and -3.4 percent, respectively from their corresponding previous month’s rates of -0.5 percent and -1.9 percent. Slower price hike in FLW items at 1.4 percent from 2.4 percent was also noted during the month. Prices of miscellaneous items moved upward at its October rate of 0.2 percent while prices of clothing and H&R items generally remained stable as they registered zero growth rate from 0.1 percent.

§ Prices in AONCR also further declined by -0.5 percent in November from -0.4 percent in October. Negative rates were continuously posted in the movement of prices of FBT and FLW items at -0.3 percent and -2.4 percent, respectively from -0.5 percent and services items, -1.2 percent from -0.9 percent. In addition, price increments in H&R items further slowed down to 0.1 percent from 0.2 percent. On the contrary, price gain in the miscellaneous items index was higher at 0.3 percent from 0.2 percent while the clothing index retained its previous month’s rate of 0.2 percent.

§ In general, lower consumer prices were still felt in all the regions except for Northern Mindanao, SOCCSKSARGEN and ARMM. The lowest monthly rate of -1.5 percent was seen in MIMAROPA and Zamboanga Peninsula while the highest at 0.6 percent was observed in ARMM.

§ Among the three big areas of the country, price declines were bigger in Luzon area than those in Visayas and Mindanao areas.

By Commodity Group, Month-on-Month

§ Consumer prices further went down to -0.6 percent in November from -0.4 percent in October. Prices of FBT and services items continued to drop at -0.3 percent and -2.0 percent, respectively from their corresponding last month’s rates of -0.4 percent and -1.2 percent. Reductions in the prices of FLW items at -1.1 percent from 0.5 percent also contributed to the downtrend. Meanwhile, positive monthly growth rates were retained in the clothing and miscellaneous index at 0.2 percent and H&R index, 0.1 percent.

§ The ample supply of rice in the markets brought about by the on-going harvest of palay in selected provinces continued to pull down its prices in all the regions except in SOCCSKSARGEN and ARMM. Thus, the rice index in the three areas still registered negative monthly growth rates during the month: Philippines and AONCR, -1.9 percent from their corresponding rates of -3.1 percent and -3.2 percent; and NCR, -2.8 percent from -2.3 percent. The biggest decline of -8.2 percent in the group’s index was noticed in MIMAROPA while the highest rate was seen in ARMM at 2.1 percent.

§ Deliveries of vegetables in the NCR markets coming from the highlands were abundant during the month. Supplies of vegetables in the regions in AONCR were also sufficient to meet the demands. Thus, the fruits and vegetables index in the Philippines decreased by -0.3 percent from 0.5 percent; NCR, -1.1 percent from 1.2 percent; and AONCR, -0.1 percent from 0.3 percent.

§ Deliveries of vegetables in the NCR markets coming from the highlands were abundant during the month. Supplies of vegetables in the regions in AONCR were also sufficient to meet the demands. Thus, the fruits and vegetables index in the Philippines decreased by -0.3 percent from 0.5 percent; NCR, -1.1 percent from 1.2 percent; and AONCR, -0.1 percent from 0.3 percent.

§ The miscellaneous foods index in NCR dropped by -0.1 percent due to lower prices of sugar and selected spices and seasonings. Meanwhile, price additions in coffee, cocoa, tea, margarine and salt along with upward adjustments in the prices of meals eaten outside the home in selected regions pushed up the miscellaneous foods index in the Philippines and AONCR by 0.1 percent.

§ Lower supply of eggs in the markets raised its prices in the three areas by 0.2 percent.

§ Prices of fish rose by 0.4 percent in the Philippines, 1.0 percent in NCR and 0.3 percent in AONCR. Higher prices were triggered by the difficulty in catching fish that usually settle deep in the waters during the cold months.

§ With the price reductions in pork and chicken in selected regions, the meat index in AONCR dropped by -0.1 percent. On the contrary, the meat index in NCR moved up by 0.3 percent due to higher prices of beef, pork and canned meat. This offsetting trend resulted to a zero growth rate in the group’s national index.

§ Upward adjustments in the prices of milk and milk products raised the dairy products index in the Philippines and AONCR by 0.3 percent and in NCR, 0.4 percent.

§ The services index in the Philippines further went down by -2.0 percent from -1.2 percent; NCR, -3.4 percent from -1.9 percent; and AONCR, -1.2 percent from -0.9 percent due to the series of price rollbacks in gasoline and diesel.

§ The continued reductions in the prices of LPG and kerosene nationwide resulted to declines in the respective FLW index of the Philippines and AONCR by -1.1 percent and -2.4 percent from their corresponding last month’s rates of 0.5 percent and -0.5 percent. Meanwhile, in NCR, despite of the lower prices of LPG and kerosene, the FLW index in the area grew by 1.4 percent brought about by higher electricity rates during the month. This was however slower than the 2.4 percent growth in October.

§ Uptick in the prices of selected construction materials in many regions caused a 0.1 percent increment in the H&R index in the Philippines and AONCR. Prices of H&R items in NCR however were generally stable as its group’s index recorded a zero growth during the month.

NOTE: CPIs and inflation rates by province and selected city are also available upon request at NSO, Industry and Trade Statistics Department, Economic Indices and Indicators Division (Telephone Numbers: 716-39-35 and 715-33-47).

Source: National Statistics Office
Manila, Philippines