Highlights

As of May 1, 2015, the updated second quarter 2015 production on palay and corn standing crops may be lower than the April 2015 Round forecasts. The decline could be due to contraction of harvest areas brought about by the adverse effects of dry spell, insufficient water supply, and incidence of pests and diseases in some provinces.

PALAY

• Palay production for April-June 2015 may reach 3.898 million MT, lower by 0.1% than the April 2015 round forecast of 3.902 million MT and 4.3% below last year’s output of 4.073 million MT. Harvest area may contract from 0.92 million hectares to 0.91 million hectares. However, overall yield may improve from 4.25 MT per hectare to 4.27 MT per hectare.

• Contraction in harvest areas are foreseen in Agusan del Norte, Bukidnon, Sorsogon, Agusan del Sur, Misamis Occidental, Negros Occidental, Capiz, Mindoro Oriental, Samar and Negros Oriental.
• In Albay, Bulacan, Davao Sur, Palawan, and Apayao, the insufficient water supply and intense heat that affected the vegetative and reproductive stages of the crop may reduce yield.
• The incidence of tungro in Laguna and infestation of stemborer and rice black bug in South Cotabato, and Surigao Norte may also bring down production.
•  Around 630 thousand hectares of the updated standing crop have been harvested. About 124 thousand hectares or 14.3% of the planting intentions for the July- September 2015 crop have been realized.
• Of the 408 thousand hectares standing palay crop, 31.4% were at vegetative stage; 22.5%, at reproductive stage and 46.1%, at maturing stage.

CORN

• Corn production for the second quarter of 2015 may reach 997 thousand MT, 3.0% below the earlier forecast of 1,029 thousand MT and 17.0% lower than last year’s level of 1,202 thousand MT. Harvest area may decline from 336 thousand hectares to 330 thousand hectares. Yield may drop to 3.02 MT per hectare from 3.06 MT per hectare.

• The probable decreases in corn output could be traced to decline in area harvested and drop in yield caused by the adverse effects of prolonged dry spell in Bukidnon, Albay, South Cotabato, Camarines Sur, Quezon, Sarangani, Misamis Oriental, Apayao, Capiz, Misamis Occidental, Sultan Kudarat and Leyte.
• The foreseen decrease in output of Sarangani and Leyte could be due to infestation of rodents and birds.
• About 197 thousand hectares of the updated standing crop have been harvested. Around 201 thousand hectares or 21.7% of the planting intentions for the July-September 2015 harvests have been materialized.
• Of the updated 334 thousand hectares of standing corn crop, about 56.3% were at vegetative stage; 19.7%, at reproductive stage and 24.0%, at maturing stage.